Analysis: The Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week

Analysts believe that considering that Fed Chairman Powell has previously stated that the reasonable rate of interest rate cuts should be 25 basis points. In addition, the economic data of the past two months has been relatively stable. Although the non-farm payrolls in October weakened significantly, it was greatly affected by one-off factors. Therefore, it is still a high probability event for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, rather than another 50 basis point cut, or no rate cut. At present, a 25 basis point rate cut in November has been basically priced in by the market, with a probability of 97.6%, while the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. At present, the analysis of the interest rate cut by major institutions is as follows: -Goldman Sachs: A continuous 25 basis point rate cut is needed; -JPMorgan Chase: The rate cut is still tenable; -Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Fed's decision this week.