Arthur Hayes: Be cautious about VC-backed projects with high FDV and low circulation, as well as highly valued tokens listed on CEX

Arthur Hayes writes about the possibility of ICO returning to the market. It points out that since the ICO craze stopped in 2017, capital formation has become less pure and has strayed away from the purpose of stoking the greed of the community. In their place are high FDV, low circulating supply, or VC-backed tokens. VC tokens have performed poorly so far in this bull cycle (2023-present). It has noted that on a median basis, vintage tokens will underperform major tokens (BTC, ETH, and/or SOL) by approximately 50% in 2024. Retail investors can eventually purchase tokens for these projects through major CEX listings, but they are unwilling to pay such high prices. As a result, exchanges’ internal market-making teams, airdrop recipients, and third-party market makers dumped tokens into illiquid markets, leading to dismal performance. The crypto industry seems to have forgotten that the third pillar of the crypto value proposition is making retail investors wealthy. Hayes believes that the ICO model has significant advantages in terms of liquidity, user experience, and blockchain speed. For project parties and investors, Hayes recommends “saying no” to the following three situations: -High FDV, low liquidity projects supported by VC; -Highly valued tokens listed on CEX; -People who promote what they consider “irresponsible” trading practices. Hayes added: “Retail investors inadvertently realized the poor risk-reward profile of VC tokens and shunned them in favor of meme coins. Let’s once again create fanatical support among users for new crypto projects so they have Opportunity to gain huge wealth.”