ICBC International Chief Economist: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points in 2025

Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, said at the 2025 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting that the adjustment path of US monetary policy in 2025 will be a process of "first urgent and then slow". It is currently expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50-75 basis points in 2025. Cheng Shi said that the re-inflation risk faced by the United States can be viewed from two dimensions: First, the current US inflation is in a range that is easy to rise but difficult to fall. There is little room for further downward movement and it is very difficult. In fact, there are many factors that may drive US inflation upward. Second, the current market has formed an upward expectation for US inflation. Inflation expectations will always be self-fulfilling, so there will be substantial upward pressure on inflation. (Jinshi)