Next week's macro outlook: CPI and "horror data" may overturn expectations of rate cuts, and the Fed turns to a cautious stance

Next week, the United States will release several important data, including PPI, CPI and "terror data", which will continue to bring volatility to the market. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Tuesday 00:00, US December New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Tuesday 21:30, US December PPI data; Tuesday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voting member, Kansas Fed President Schmid speech; Wednesday 04:00, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams delivered an opening speech at an event; Wednesday 21:00, 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speech; Wednesday 21:30, US December CPI data, US January New York Fed manufacturing index; Wednesday 23:00, 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari at the online regional economic conference hosted by the Minneapolis Fed welcome speech and participate in the fireside chat; Thursday 00:00, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks; Thursday 01:00, 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; Thursday 03:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending January 11, and the monthly rate of retail sales in December. As the Federal Reserve shifts to a more cautious stance, there are some encouraging signs in the November CPI report that price increases in housing and broader service categories (which are the biggest contributors to inflation stickiness) have begun to ease. This makes it possible for the CPI data scheduled for release next Wednesday to have a downward surprise, but any deceleration is more likely to appear in the first few months of 2025 rather than the CPI data in December last year. Before the release of the CPI data, investors will focus on the US PPI data for December last year, which is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, while on Thursday, all eyes in the market will be on the retail sales data, which is known as the "horror data."