Odaily Planet Daily News: The prediction on Polymarket that "TikTok will be banned in the United States by May 2025" resulted in "yes", a decision that sparked controversy among users, who accused Polymarket of manipulating the results. The transaction volume of the event reached $120 million.
On January 19, the ban took effect and TikTok displayed a message to users saying that the app would no longer be accessible.
However, just one day later, TikTok announced that it would retain access for another 75 days after the intervention of President Trump, who temporarily suspended the ban in order to negotiate an agreement with ByteDance.
This caused confusion among Polymarket users, who believed that TikTok was not effectively banned because it was still available to most Americans.
Polymarket relies on UMA's Optimistic Oracle (OO) to resolve its prediction market results. OO provides preliminary results for disputes, which can be upgraded to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) if disputed.
In this case, the DVM process was bypassed and the market directly resolved to "yes", leading to accusations of manipulation.
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced criticism. In May 2024, Polymarket users questioned UMA’s decision regarding the Ethereum ETF prediction market.
In June 2024, there was outrage regarding Barron Trump’s alleged involvement in the Meme coin market, when Polymarket overturned UMA’s decision and refunded funds to users who objected to UMA’s ruling. (Cointelegraph)
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