Arthur Hayes: BTC may fall back 30% in the short term to shed gains caused by the “Trump effect”

Odaily Planet Daily News Arthur Hayes published an article titled "The Ugly", which pointed out that as the US 10-year Treasury yield rises, coupled with the political dynamics around the Trump administration, market volatility has increased and risks have increased. Hayes explored US monetary policy in depth, pointed out the potential mini-financial crisis caused by the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, and emphasized the liquidity crunch that could have a negative impact on Bitcoin and other financial markets. He said: "History does not repeat itself, but there are always similarities. I do not believe that this bull cycle is over; however, from a forward-looking probability perspective, I think it is more likely that Bitcoin will fall to $70,000-$75,000 and then rise to $250,000 by the end of the year, rather than continue to rise without a substantial correction. As a result, Maelstrom has increased his Ethena USDe stake to a record level and continues to profit on several junk coin positions. We still hold a large net long position, but if my feeling is correct, then we will hold a lot of "bullets" ready to buy the bottom of Bitcoin as well as many high-quality junk coins. In my opinion, if Bitcoin trading volume is strong and open interest continues to expand, breaking through $110,000 (the level reached during the peak of TRUMP mania), then I will admit defeat and buy back with higher risk. More precisely, TRUMP rose to nearly $100 billion in 24 hours. FDV, this is really crazy. I bought it a few hours after it launched and sold it over the weekend. Trading shouldn't be that easy, but it was during the mania phase. In my opinion, TRUMP is a top signal. Trading is not about being right or wrong, it's about trading perceived probabilities and maximizing expected value. Why do I believe Bitcoin will have a 30% correction? I have been trading this market for over a decade and have been through three bull cycles. Given Bitcoin's volatility, this type of pullback has often occurred throughout the bull market. What's more, the market surpassed its all-time high in March 2024 after Trump won reelection in early November 2024. Many people, including me, have written extensively about how Trumpism portends an acceleration in US money printing and how other countries will stimulate their domestic economies with their own money printing programs. However, this article argues that none of these programs in the US, China, and Japan can begin in earnest unless a little fire is lit in the fiat monetary system. Therefore, I think we will fall back to the previous all-time high and give back all the gains from Trump. There is a 60% chance of a 30% correction in Bitcoin, and a 10% chance of a continued bull market and Bitcoin gains 40%, based on calculations to reduce risk is correct. I reduce risk by selling long Bitcoin and holding more funds as collateral USDe, and the current annual return is about 10% to 20%. If Bitcoin plummets, the shitcoin field will face doomsday, and this is where I really want to participate. ”