Market Consensus on U.S. Employment Data Expectations

According to Odaily, major investment banks have forecasted the range for non-farm payroll employment growth to be between 60,000 and 250,000, with most predictions clustering between 140,000 and 200,000. The market consensus anticipates an increase of 170,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, with 68% of predictions aligning with this figure. Other expectations include 4.2% (24%), 4.0% (6%), and both 4.3% and 4.5% at 1% each. The consensus for the annual average hourly earnings growth rate is 3.8%, with 49% of predictions supporting this figure, followed by 3.7% (28%) and 3.9% (14%). For the monthly average hourly earnings growth rate, the consensus is 0.3%, with 75% of predictions, followed by 0.4% at 21%. The impact on the market is expected to be greater if the data falls within less anticipated ranges.