CITIC Securities: Maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year

Odaily Planet Daily News CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in January 2025 was lower than expected, with health care services, retail and government sectors as the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the United States did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The unemployment rate fell, the wage growth rate rose, and the number of people lowered in the annual revision was less than the initial revision, and the job market remained healthy. We expect the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Musk to have a small impact on new non-farm jobs in 2025. The non-farm data broke the market's more optimistic sentiment after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of interest rate cuts was postponed again. The focus of the market will be on Trump's tariff fog and inflation expectations. It is expected that US stocks will remain highly volatile. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, each time by 25bps. (Jinshi)