QCP Capital: A more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter

Odaily Planet Daily News QCP Capital published an article today saying that last Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data brought some respite to the stock market and cryptocurrency market, further reinforcing the market's expectations for a rate cut in May. Bitcoin remained consolidated around $86,000 for most of Saturday, seemingly laying the foundation for a steady recovery this week. However, this momentum was interrupted by the Bybit hack during the low liquidity period on Sunday, when hackers cashed out at least $300 million from a record $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing BTC and ETH to test key support levels again. Since hackers have shown a willingness to cash out rather than risk further losses (the stolen assets have depreciated by 25%), holders may sell in advance to avoid supply pressure from further selling by hackers, which may exacerbate today's price decline. In the past 24 hours, the risk reversal demand for put options has increased further, reflecting the market's growing concerns about additional selling pressure. Although $80,000 remains a key support level for BTC in the near term, the upside also seems to be limited as the narrative of strategic Bitcoin reserves has been fully priced in by the market. Recent options flows suggest that a more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter. Until the cryptocurrency market finds a new narrative, BTC's correlation with the stock market may strengthen further in the short term. Currently, both risk assets are trading near recent lows, and with tariff risks still present, market volatility may rise ahead of the release of key US macro data - the Consumer Price Index (CPI, Wednesday) and the Producer Price Index (PPI, Thursday).