Polymarket's Prediction Accuracy Analyzed by Data Scientist

According to BlockBeats, research conducted by data scientist Alex McCullough reveals that prediction market Polymarket achieves a 90% accuracy rate for events predicted a month in advance, with accuracy rising to 94% within four hours of the event. McCullough's analysis of Polymarket's historical data, excluding extreme probability values, indicates that the platform tends to slightly overestimate the likelihood of events across most probability ranges. This overestimation may be influenced by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants' preference for high-risk bets.