QCP: The crypto market will still fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the Bitcoin Conference will be particularly important

Odaily Planet Daily News QCP posted on its channel that Bitcoin's reaction to macroeconomic developments last Friday was relatively restrained, despite a sharp rise in the stock market. Institutional demand for spot ETFs remained stable, providing underlying support for the market. Despite this, front-end implied volatility remained strong, and Bitcoin prices consolidated in a narrow range of $107,000 to $110,000. The recent high volatility suggests that traders are positioning for headline risks ahead of the Bitcoin Conference scheduled for May 27-29 in Las Vegas. Market attention has begun to focus on the lineup of speakers at the conference, including JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Trump II and Eric Trump. The Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville last July provides a useful reference. At that time, President Trump's keynote speech triggered a surge in 1-day implied volatility to more than 90, followed by a rapid retreat, with Bitcoin falling nearly 30% in two days. This event continues to affect market memory. Although the possibility of a similar sharp retracement seems low, market positioning shows a defensive tendency. Open interest in perpetual swaps has fallen over the past 24 hours, and funding rates have normalized. Some high-beta retail traders, including James Wynn, have also reduced their exposure. Demand for short-dated put options remains in focus. Against this backdrop, reports that Trump Media was exploring $3 billion in cryptocurrency funding, although denied, have increased the market's sensitivity to headlines. Bitcoin is likely to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term. Once the conference is over and key speeches are completed, front-end volatility is expected to compress as risk premiums fade.