QCP Capital: Bitcoin maintains low volatility and lacks breakthrough momentum, and market wait-and-see sentiment intensifies

Odaily Planet Daily News QCP Capital posted on its official channel that "As summer approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a narrow range and implied volatility continues to be under pressure. Although the current implied volatility is at a one-year low and looks "cheap" on the surface, the actual volatility is lower. Historical data from the past two years show that short-term option volatility tends to decline further before July each year. Similar trends occurred in the same period last year. If the price of Bitcoin can clearly break below $100,000 or above $110,000, it may rekindle widespread market interest. But at present, there are no obvious short-term catalysts to drive this trend. Although recent macro news has caused short-term fluctuations, most of them are regarded as "noise" by the market and quickly fade away, failing to trigger a directional breakthrough. Even though the US employment data was better than expected last Friday, driving US stocks up and gold down, Bitcoin remained calm, trapped in the intertwined influence of multiple macro factors, and lacked a clear direction anchor. Without a convincing narrative to drive a new round of gains, the market is showing signs of fatigue. The open interest of perpetual contracts is decreasing, and the spot Bitcoin ETF The inflow of funds has also begun to slow down. Options trading in the past week also reflects the market's wait-and-see state. We have seen a large number of upside call options expiring in July being moved to September, and the trading volume is not small, indicating that investors are postponing their bullish expectations to a further time point. "