Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the 1-day candle chart at a log scale.In our previous report dated June 6, we identified a strong support zone between $100,000 and $102,000, as highlighted on the accompanying chart. Following Bitcoin’s rebound from this support area, the upward trendline (depicted as the blue line) was expected to act as resistance within the $108,000 to $110,000 range. As anticipated, BTC encountered significant selling pressure upon reaching the $110,000 level on June 11.On Thursday, June 12, the Israel-led airstrike heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, triggering a swift decline in BTC’s price toward the $102,000 support level. Concurrently, gold and oil prices surged amid the escalating regional instability. Notably, Bitcoin demonstrated greater resilience during this episode compared to the geopolitical tension escalation in October 2024, missile attacks by Iran on Israel.Currently, BTC is consolidating within a narrow range between $104,000 and $106,000, despite substantial capital inflows through ETFs over the past eight trading sessions. This price stagnation amid strong inflows has raised cautionary signals, and we anticipate increased volatility in the near term.Additionally, reports indicate that former US President Trump privately approved attack plans targeting Iran but withheld final authorization as of Wednesday Eastern Time. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East is generating significant uncertainty, prompting investors to closely monitor developments and prepare capital allocation strategies under various scenarios.On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve announced its June FOMC decision to maintain interest rates at 4.50%. Chair Powell’s remarks underscored a “wait and see” approach toward future rate adjustments. The Fed’s hawkish stance suggests that the easing of global liquidity conditions may be delayed until later this year.Given the current geopolitical landscape and monetary policy environment, our desk has formulated several trading ideas for the coming two weeks. Please note, this is not financial advice, and we encourage you to conduct your own research.Trading IdeasScenario 1: Geopolitical Tensions Escalate, BTC Price DeclinesLong Entry: Support bounce near $100,000 - $102,000Rationale: This zone has consistently acted as strong support (highlighted by the red horizontal band), with multiple price rebounds indicating robust buyer interest.Take Profit: $110,000 - $111,500 (near recent highs and psychological resistance)Stop Loss: $98,500 (just below the support zone to limit downside risk)Scenario 2: Geopolitical Tensions De-escalate, Potential Negotiations Between Israel/US and IranShort Entry: Rejection near $111,500 - $112,000 resistanceRationale: The $111,500 - $112,000 level has proven to be a strong resistance zone, with recent price rejections.Take Profit: $103,000 - $105,000 (near support and previous consolidation areas)Stop Loss: $114,000 (above recent highs to protect against breakout)Please note that Thursday is a public holiday in the US, resulting in the closure of the US stock market. Consequently, there will be limited guidance from Bitcoin spot ETF flows. In the absence of ETF-driven capital inflows, it will be critical to closely monitor BTC price action to assess underlying selling pressure.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.Since June 9, 2025, approximately $2 billion in capital has flowed into the BTC asset class through ETF channels, according to the ETF capital tracker. This substantial inflow indicates that traditional financial institutions are increasingly allocating risk exposure to Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, despite the recent price decline triggered by the Israeli airstrike news last Thursday.Nevertheless, despite the $2 billion investment via ETFs, alongside significant BTC accumulation by publicly listed companies like Strategy and others from the open market, Bitcoin’s price has remained confined within a narrow range. It has struggled to gain upward momentum. The inability of BTC’s price to advance amid strong capital inflows raises concerns regarding underlying selling pressure. The muted price response despite robust inflows may suggest that Bitcoin is encountering significant resistance from large sellers, effectively capping its upside potential.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (June 12, 2025)US initial jobless claims rose slightly to 248,000 last week, marginally above the forecasted 242,000.The US Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a modest 0.1% month-over-month increase in May, falling short of the anticipated 0.2%. The impact of tariffs on domestic inflation appears to be unfolding more gradually than expected.In the evening (Eastern Time), Israel unexpectedly launched missile strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, significantly escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This development triggered a broad sell-off in risk assets, while gold and oil prices surged in response.On Tuesday (June 17, 2025)The Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its interest rate at 0.50%, keeping it unchanged. Additionally, the central bank signaled a more cautious approach by deciding to slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction next year, reflecting a measured stance on unwinding its quantitative easing program.US retail sales declined by 0.9% in May, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.5%. Core retail sales also fell by 0.3%, contrary to analyst forecasts of a 0.2% increase.On Wednesday (June 18, 2025)The UK’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate slowed slightly to 3.4% in May, down from 3.5% in April, but missed the forecasted 3.3%.In contrast, the Eurozone’s annual CPI growth rate eased to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April.US initial jobless claims remained steady at 245,000 last week.Following its June meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, as widely anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference reinforced a “wait and see” approach regarding future rate adjustments. The Fed’s dot plot projections indicate the possibility of two rate cuts in 2025.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email:
[email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram Channel (@BinanceOTCTrading) to stay up to date with the markets!
Alex
Catherine
Kikyo