Macro Outlook: Markets Eye U.S. PMI and Jobs Data as Fed Patience Signals Mount

Key Takeaways:U.S. dollar slips after Israel-Iran ceasefire, focus shifts to upcoming macro data.Key events include June PMI, non-farm payrolls, and speeches by Fed officials.Strong labor market data could delay Fed rate cuts and support dollar rebound.Macro Outlook: U.S. Dollar Dips Post-Ceasefire as Markets Turn to PMI and Jobs DataThe U.S. dollar began the week higher on geopolitical tension surrounding U.S. involvement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, but gave up gains following a ceasefire agreement, falling below the 97 mark. According to PANews, market attention now shifts to key U.S. economic indicators due in the coming days, which may shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate path.Key Macro Events to Watch This Week:Monday: U.S. Chicago PMI for June; speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on the economic outlook.Tuesday: Remarks from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee; Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears at a panel discussion; release of ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, JOLTs job openings for May, and May construction spending data.Thursday: Weekly initial jobless claims; June unemployment rate; non-farm payrolls; May trade balance.Markets are particularly focused on the June non-farm payrolls report, where expectations are for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%. However, job additions are forecast to drop to 129,000, down from 139,000 the previous month. If the ISM Manufacturing PMI also signals softening momentum, it could reinforce the view of a cooling economy—but not necessarily enough to prompt immediate Fed easing.Analysts suggest that if the labor market remains resilient, investors may revise their expectations for near-term rate cuts, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” stance from the Fed. This could lead to a renewed dollar rebound, especially if inflation data also remains sticky.As Fed officials take the stage this week, markets will listen closely for clues on policy timing, particularly in light of recent dovish repricing in global bond markets. The outlook for risk assets—including crypto and equities—may hinge on how decisively the upcoming data shifts the Fed’s ton