US Non-Farm Payrolls May Signal Recession, Says Swissquote Analyst

Key Points:US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data below 50,000 for 6 consecutive months could signal a recession.The US may already be halfway to meeting this recessionary condition.Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut contrast with political instability and weak economic outlook.The latest warning on the U.S. labor market comes from Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, who said that six consecutive months of sub-50,000 non-farm payroll gains would be a clear recession signal. With recent data showing only 73,000 jobs added in July, and downward revisions to May and June, the U.S. may already be halfway toward that threshold.“If the NFP trend continues below 50,000, it could mark the beginning of a broader recessionary phase,” Ozkardeskaya noted, according to Jinshi Data.Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Economic Fears MountWhile recession fears have fueled speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September, analysts caution that monetary easing alone won’t rescue markets amid deeper structural concerns.Markets have already priced in an 80.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's next policy meeting, up sharply from just 41.3% before the July jobs report.Political Risk and Economic Credibility in FocusThe weak jobs print has also added political pressure. President Trump recently fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) over the labor data, accusing the agency of skewing figures for political purposes. This unprecedented move raises concerns about the independence and credibility of official economic data.“A rate cut won’t magically save the market,” Ozkardeskaya warned, adding that blaming data agencies for poor policy outcomes may undermine confidence in the U.S. economy’s institutional framework.Crypto and Hard Assets Could BenefitAs recession signals strengthen and political tensions rise, hard assets like Bitcoin and gold may gain appeal. Investors seeking protection from both inflation and systemic risk could increasingly rotate into alternative stores of value, especially if further NFP misses confirm a recessionary trajectory.