Key Points:Bitcoin opens September with new lows at $107,270, while traders eye $100K as the next major support.Gold breaks out toward all-time highs at $3,489, prompting warnings from gold bug Peter Schiff that BTC looks “very bearish.”ETF flows show stress, with $750M in outflows in August — the second-worst month on record.Macro focus shifts to U.S. labor data and Fed rate cut expectations, with markets pricing a 90% chance of a September cut.September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with average returns of –3.5%.1. Bitcoin tests $107K as volatility spikesBTC/USD fell to $107,270 after the weekly open before rebounding toward $110,000. Traders are split between a possible retest of $100K–94K and a short squeeze toward $112K–117K to target liquidity.2. Tariff uncertainty and U.S. jobs data dominateWith U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, focus turns to employment data later this week, the Fed’s final labor read before the Sept. 17 FOMC meeting. Futures markets still price in a 90% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, but stronger payrolls could challenge that outlook.3. Gold breaks out, Schiff turns bearish on BitcoinGold surged to $3,489 per ounce, within inches of April’s record high, helped by the PCE inflation print and September’s historically strong seasonality.Peter Schiff argued gold’s strength is “very bearish for Bitcoin,” warning BTC is “poised to go much lower.”4. Institutional demand weakens, ETF outflows mountU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $126.7M outflows on Friday, capping a difficult August with $750M in net redemptions. According to Capriole Investments, institutional buying has plunged to its lowest since April, though demand still equals 200% of daily miner supply.5. September seasonality pressures BTCHistorically, September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, with average returns of –3.5%. August already closed red (-6.5%), marking BTC’s first post-halving August decline. Analysts warn this may signal a shift away from the traditional four-year halving cycle, driven by institutional flows.
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