The JOLTS data is unlikely to change the market's existing expectations for the Fed's policy outlook.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously stated at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that downside risks to the labor market are increasing, adding that "tightening immigration policies have led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth." Similarly, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly also noted that the Fed cannot immediately determine whether tariff-related price increases are a one-off phenomenon, as waiting for definitive evidence could harm the labor market. While current market positioning suggests limited downside for the dollar, a significant drop in job openings in the JOLTS report could further confirm deteriorating labor market conditions, potentially putting pressure on the dollar following the data's release. Conversely, better-than-expected data is unlikely to alter existing market expectations regarding the Fed's policy outlook, thus limiting any potential boost to the dollar. (Jinshi)