Bitcoin Price News: October Breakout Odds Remain Low Despite New All-Time High

Key Takeaways:Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high above $125,000 before consolidating near $124,000.AI-based forecasts show low odds for a major breakout in October.Analysts target $150,000 after a potential short-term pullback to $118,000–$121,000.Macro focus shifts to Federal Reserve commentary as the US government shutdown delays key economic data.Market sentiment remains in “greed” territory but below extreme levels, suggesting traders expect consolidation.Bitcoin Holds Near Record High as Traders Eye $150KBitcoin entered its first full week of “Uptober” trading near $123,948, following a weekend surge to a record above $125,000. The milestone capped months of consistent gains, though analysts expect the rally to pause before the next leg higher.Futures data shows the CME “gap” from the weekend has already been filled — a move trader Daan Crypto Trades called a “classic squeeze and retrace.” Others, including Crypto Tony, say bulls must now defend $123,000 to maintain momentum.“Bitcoin has reached a crucial resistance level,” said analyst Ted Pillows. “If institutions start bidding again like last week, a reclaim is possible.”Broader sentiment remains bullish, with analysts like Michaël van de Poppe and Crypto Jelle targeting $150,000 as the next major milestone. However, many expect a period of sideways trading before that goal materializes.“I don't think Bitcoin will blast through the ATH in one go,” van de Poppe noted. “Anything below $121,500 is a good re-entry zone before we move toward $150K.”Traders Expect 4% Dip Before Resuming UptrendMarket analysts expect a short-term correction, citing overextended technical indicators and the need for new support confirmation.The 50-period EMA on the four-hour chart — currently near $119,250 — is viewed as the next logical support retest.“We could see a 4h-50EMA retest — it’s overextended, and past patterns show this pullback is typical,” wrote CrypNuevo. “After that, I’m still favoring longs over shorts.”Rekt Capital added that a mild 4% dip toward $118,000 would still preserve the overall bullish structure, as long as BTC maintains higher highs and higher lows.“Bitcoin needs to prove $124K is a weakening point of rejection,” Rekt Capital said. “Any shallower dip from here strengthens that case.”AI Model Predicts Range-Bound “Uptober”Despite optimism in the market, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that October may remain largely range-bound.Its NBeats Ensemble AI model, trained on nearly 400 on-chain metrics, projects low odds of a breakout this month.“After a strong uptrend, Bitcoin has entered a re-accumulation phase between $108,000 and $123,000,” wrote analyst CryptoOnchain. “The AI model predicts continued fluctuations in the upper half of this range.”CryptoQuant concluded that BTC will likely consolidate above $120K before flipping $123K into solid support — a setup that could pave the way for a decisive breakout in November or December.Fed Commentary Takes Center Stage Amid ShutdownThe ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted key economic releases, shifting market attention to upcoming Federal Reserve speeches.Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are among officials scheduled to speak this week, with investors parsing remarks for clues on future interest rate cuts.The Fed’s next policy decision is roughly three weeks away, and without fresh labor data, traders are relying on forward-looking sentiment indicators.According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets continue to “climb the wall of worry,” with the S&P 500 near record highs after 108 consecutive days above its 50-day moving average — an unusually strong streak for risk assets.Market Sentiment: Greedy but Not ExtremeThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index has rebounded sharply from September’s lows (26/100) to 71/100, signaling “greed” but avoiding the “extreme greed” zone.The reading remains below levels seen during Bitcoin’s mid-August rally, suggesting traders are optimistic but still cautious about entering new longs.Alternative sentiment measures from Alphractal and other analytics firms similarly point to a balanced but bullish tone — one that often precedes consolidation before major continuation rallies.Patience Before the Next MoveBitcoin’s record-breaking start to October highlights robust institutional and retail demand, but both on-chain data and AI-based forecasts suggest that the next phase of the bull market may require patience.With support between $118K–$121K holding firm and macro headwinds softening, traders are watching for a decisive range breakout above $123K to confirm the next upward leg.Until then, “Uptober” may be more about building the base for $150,000 rather than reaching it this month.