Polymarket: Market betting on the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 91%.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, as of today, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in contracts predicting whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October 2025 has risen to 91%, a record high. By comparison, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4%, the probability of no change is 7%, and the probability of a rate hike is less than 1%. Total trading volume for this event has exceeded $62 million, with the most active contract being the 25 basis point rate cut, which reached $8.58 million.