Key TakeawaysEthereum (ETH) rebounds over 15% from recent lows, with bull flag and onchain data signaling renewed upside momentum.MVRV deviation bands show ETH stabilizing near support, historically a springboard for rallies toward $5,000.Holding above the 200-day EMA near $3,550 remains key for confirming the bullish setup.Ethereum Eyes $4,500 as Bull Flag Structure FormsEthereum’s native token, Ether (ETH $3,971), has recovered sharply after falling to a two-month low of $3,435 earlier this month.The price rebound appears to be unfolding within a bull flag pattern, a continuation setup that typically precedes another leg higher in an uptrend.The flag is defined by a descending parallel channel, forming after ETH’s strong rally from $2,500 (April low) to $4,950 (August high). The recent bounce from the channel’s lower boundary near $3,500 coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) — a historical buy zone during Ethereum bull markets.If ETH holds these support levels, it could retest the upper channel boundary around $4,450–$4,500 in October.Analyst FOUR projects a similar move toward the double-bottom neckline near $4,750, while trader Luca sees ETH reclaiming $4,500 after defending its “weekly bull market support band.”A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern could extend the rally toward $5,200–$5,250, implying a potential new all-time high by November.However, a breakdown below $3,550 — the confluence of the 200-day EMA and flag support — would invalidate the bullish setup and expose Ethereum to a deeper pullback toward $3,000–$3,200.Onchain MVRV Bands Reinforce $4,500–$5,000 TargetOnchain data adds weight to Ethereum’s bullish technical outlook.According to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, ETH’s correction has been consolidating near the mean band around $3,900, which has historically marked cycle midpoints before fresh rallies.Each prior rebound from this band — seen in early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024 — led ETH to test the +1σ band near $5,000.The current setup suggests the token remains in a “healthy correction phase” rather than signaling exhaustion.If the mean level continues to act as support, statistical probabilities favor a move toward $4,500–$5,000 by late October, confirming Ethereum’s ongoing macro uptrend.Ethereum’s price structure and onchain data both point to renewed bullish momentum.A sustained hold above $3,550–$3,900 could propel ETH toward $4,500–$5,000 in the coming weeks, while a break below these zones would delay the move and invite deeper profit-taking.
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