Fed Decision Preview: Powell's Press Conference May Offer Hawkish Surprises

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference is the market's primary focus. Currently, the basic scenario is that, in the absence of government data, Chairman Powell will maintain the status quo and will not reveal much regarding forward guidance. The only possible surprise for the market is his expression of uncertainty about a December rate cut, which would likely be seen as a hawkish surprise, as the market is currently confident of a December rate cut. Theoretically, the immediate market reaction would be: a decline in US stocks, a rise in US Treasury yields, with short-term yields rising faster than long-term yields, a significant strengthening of the US dollar, and a decline in precious metals such as gold and silver. On the other hand, if Powell maintains his stance on a December rate cut, the market will continue to fluctuate based on developments in the trade situation. (Jinshi)