Polymarket predicts a 73% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, while CME predicts a 66.9% probability.

As of now, Polymarket predicts a 73% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged. However, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 66.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%. The CME FedWatch Tool's predictions for the next Fed rate adjustment are primarily made by professional interest rate traders, while Polymarket's predictions reflect a collective game played by different traders through actual betting.