Opinion: Fed policy repricing fuels cautious rebound; Bitcoin experiences its longest losing streak since 2024.

Bitcoin has recorded its fourth consecutive weekly loss, its longest losing streak since June 2024, although it has recently begun to recover some of last week's losses. Bitcoin's price action is putting its fourth-quarter performance on track for its worst since 2018, currently down 24.43%. Sean Dawson, head of research at options analytics platform Derive, said he expects a tough period for the market before Christmas and is cautious about the current rally, believing it could be a bull trap. He pointed out that most digital asset treasuries (DATs) are trading below their net asset value, hindering their accumulation ability, and spot Bitcoin and the ETH ETF have also fallen. However, a key spot market indicator shows underlying demand: the 10% depth aggregated spot bid-ask spread has surged to its second-highest level in 2025, indicating increased buying activity on dips, which may be absorbing selling pressure. This indicator last spiked after a sustained decline in March and April, helping to form the bottom that catalyzed the 64% bull run. Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,400, up about 6% from its November 21 low of $82,100, and up about 1.8% in the past 24 hours. This rebound coincides with a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, with the market's probability of a December rate cut jumping from 40% last week to nearly 70%. Dawson is optimistic that Bitcoin will rebound to $100,000 in the first quarter of 2026, but pessimistic about the remainder of 2025. He cites negative biases in the options market, noting that traders are hedging downside risks, particularly with options expiring in December 2025, with a large accumulation of put options in the $80,000 to $85,000 range. He suggests that if the Federal Reserve does not take a hawkish stance, Bitcoin could briefly dip into the mid-to-high $70,000 range before recovering to around $90,000 by the end of the year. (Decrypt)