Fed Decision Preview: More Important Than Rate Cuts is the Signal of Balance Sheet Expansion

According to foreign media analysis, the Federal Reserve officially ended its balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Bank reserves have fallen to levels historically associated with tight funding, and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has periodically tested the upper limit of the policy rate corridor. The US banking system is gradually entering a period of liquidity stress. Against this backdrop, the most important signal from the FOMC may not be the 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the direction of its balance sheet strategy. The Fed is expected to explicitly outline, or through its implementation notes, how it intends to transition to the Reserve Management Purchase Program (RMP). According to Evercore ISI, this program could begin as early as January 2026, injecting approximately $35 billion per month to purchase Treasury bills, resulting in an annual balance sheet growth of over $400 billion.