Greeks.live: Liquidity is weak at the end of the year, and the mainstream expectation in the options market is a slow decline.

According to Greeks.live analyst Adam, the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the resumption of its $40 billion monthly short-term Treasury bill (T-bills) purchase program. The overall stance was dovish, which should help improve liquidity in the financial system and is beneficial to the market. However, Adam pointed out that with the Christmas holidays and year-end settlement approaching, this period is historically the time with the lowest liquidity and low activity in the crypto market. Therefore, "it's too early to talk about restarting the bull market," and the momentum for a market reversal is limited. Options data shows that both BTC and ETH had high open interest concentration at the end of December: the biggest resistance level for BTC was $100,000; for ETH, it was $3,200. Meanwhile, implied volatility for major expiration dates this month continued to decline, reflecting a significant decrease in market expectations for short-term volatility. Adam also pointed out that the skew remained negative for an extended period this month, meaning that put option prices were significantly higher than call option prices for the same delta. This was attributed to several factors, including: the dominance of covered call strategies after the overall market stabilized, which suppressed call pricing; and recent market weakness, leading more traders to hedge downside risk through puts. In summary, current sentiment in the crypto market is weak, with poor liquidity at the end of the year, and the prevailing view in the options market points to a "slow decline"; however, a short-term reversal due to sudden positive news should be anticipated (although the probability is low).