Fitch Ratings has revised upward its 2025 US GDP growth forecast and 2026 growth projections. This revision incorporates economic data delayed due to the government shutdown at the end of last year. Fitch now expects GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, up from 1.8% in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). The 2026 growth forecast has also been revised upward to 2.0% from 1.9% previously reported. Given the incomplete October data, recent CPI inflation trends are difficult to interpret. Inflation is estimated to rise to 3.0% in December 2025 (from 2.7% in November) and will rise further in 2026, reaching an expected 3.2% by year-end, influenced by delayed tariff transmission. The average unemployment rate in 2026 is projected to be 4.6%, close to recent levels, as the impact of slower job growth is offset by a decline in labor force growth. We expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate (the upper limit) to 3.25%. (Jinshi)