Bernstein Warns of Narrowing Window for U.S. Crypto Market Structure Legislation

According to BlockBeats, on January 12, Wall Street firm Bernstein highlighted in its latest analysis report that the window for passing the U.S. crypto market structure legislation is rapidly closing as lawmakers face growing divisions between the banking and crypto industries over stablecoin yield issues. Analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a report to clients on Monday that while the core elements of the Clarity Act, including the distinction between digital commodities and securities and the regulation of decentralized finance, are contentious, these issues are unlikely to impede its progress. The main obstacle, according to the analyst, is the banking sector's attempt to limit crypto platforms from offering stablecoin yield balances. Although the GENIUS Act, signed into law last year by U.S. President Donald Trump, prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying yields, it still allows crypto platforms and their affiliates to distribute yields to users, typically ranging from 2% to 4% annually. The banking industry views these incentives as a threat to traditional deposits, as the stablecoin market could grow from its current size of over $275 billion to several trillion dollars, becoming a 'systemically important' sector. The crypto industry argues that revisiting this issue would undermine the hard-won legislative compromise of the GENIUS Act and is anti-competitive and anti-free market. Both sides see this issue as a critical red line, and failure to reach a compromise soon could increase the risk of the legislation being delayed or failing. Bernstein added that political timing is crucial, and the legislation needs to make progress by the second quarter of 2026 at the latest to avoid being disrupted by midterm election dynamics. The firm noted that the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration provides an advantage for the industry but warned that if the yield dispute persists, momentum could still stall. Chhugani emphasized that the current period is a 'critical window.'