Wintermute: Bitcoin's traditional 4-year cycle is changing; whether the market can recover in 2026 depends heavily on three factors.

In its review of the digital asset over-the-counter market, crypto market maker Wintermute analyzed that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle was weak in 2025, and the altcoin cycle almost disappeared. This was not a temporary adjustment, but a structural change. Therefore, for the crypto market to truly rebound strongly in 2026, it highly depends on the following three key outcomes, at least one of which needs to occur: ETFs and crypto treasuries (DAT) companies expanding their investment scope beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, the US spot BTC/ETH ETF concentrates liquidity highly on a few large-cap tokens, resulting in narrow market breadth and severely differentiated performance. Only when more cryptocurrencies are included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries will it be possible to restore broader market participation and liquidity. BTC, ETH, and major assets such as BNB and SOL will once again show strong performance, generating a widespread wealth effect. The traditional cycle of "BTC rising followed by funds flowing to altcoins" was essentially broken in 2025, with the average altcoin upward cycle lasting only about 20 days (compared to about 60 days the previous year), and most tokens continuing to decline due to unlocking selling pressure. Only a significant surge in leading assets could trigger a renewed outflow of funds, revitalizing the altcoin market. Retail investors are returning their attention to the crypto market. Currently, retail investors are still actively participating, but funds are primarily focused on high-growth themes such as pegging to the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. The painful memories of 2022-2023 (crashes, bankruptcies, forced liquidations), coupled with the expectation that crypto will underperform traditional stocks in 2025, have significantly diminished the allure of crypto's potential for quick riches. Only a large-scale return of retail investors will restore the market's momentum. (Cointelegraph)