With the midterm elections approaching, the political maneuvering surrounding Trump's policies has become the biggest uncertainty for the US stock market in 2026.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, plans to coin a new term—"Big MAC Trading"—an abbreviation for "Big Midterms Are Coming." He intends to use this concept to encapsulate his view of the core theme for the U.S. stock market in 2026: the policy direction and its impact before and after the congressional elections this fall. President Trump's series of policy-like statements at the beginning of the year clearly indicate that he is focusing on improving the Republican Party's chances of winning the November elections, with his policy tools targeting the hotly debated issue of "affordability" in the U.S. This trend could have a profound impact on the stock market. Take last week's market performance as an example. Trump's demand that credit card issuers cap interest rates at 10%—less than half the current average—caused a sharp drop in bank stocks. His order for defense companies to suspend dividend payments and redirect funds to production also severely impacted the defense sector. And after the government's recent criticism of the Federal Reserve's independence, Wall Street was gripped by panic on Monday. Lissolder wrote in his report: "Policy adjustments targeting specific industries before the midterm elections will be a major risk," and the market is currently unsure how to hedge against such risks. (Jinshi)