10 key points to look at Coinbase's Q3 2024 crypto outlook

Author: Crypto, Distilled, Crypto KOL; Translation: Jinse Finance xiaozou

Coinbase has just released their "Crypto Outlook" report for the third quarter of 2024. I have read the 60-page report for you and summarized the 10 points you need to know as follows.

1、MVRV(Market Value and Realized Value Ratio) and Market Trend:

When MVRV is above the 365-day average, it marks a strong uptrend, and the support of MVRV provides a buying opportunity. At present, MVRV has rebounded from the support level, indicating that the uptrend remains intact.

2、BTCROI:

BTC has gone through 4 market cycles, each with its own bull and bear phases. This cycle began in 2022, and the price of BTC has risen 400% from its low in November 2022. This cycle is similar to the 2018-2022 cycle, when the price of BTC rose 2000% from its low point.

3, Smaller decline:

BTC bull market cycles are usually characterized by exponential rises and sharp declines. This cycle is different from the previous ones, with smaller declines: 8 declines of 5%-20%, 2 declines of 20%-30%, and no decline of more than 30%.

4Decline in cryptocurrency correlation:

Crypto asset correlation declined in the second quarter: ETH's correlation was 0.7, and some altcoins were even below 0.5. This decoupling of correlation marks a deeper understanding of the market's fundamentals of tokens. With regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, the correlation is expected to decline further.

5Volatility Perception and Reality:

From a perception perspective, the volatility of digital assets is too high for many investors. The reality is that the volatility of cryptocurrencies is comparable to that of some widely held large technology stocks.

6、SpotETFImpact:

Spot ETFs have driven a large amount of new demand for BTC, while new BTC supply is still limited to miner rewards. Since spot ETFs began trading, the demand for ETFs has greatly exceeded the issuance of BTC.

7、ETHMarket Cycle:

ETH has gone through two complete market cycles. This cycle began in 2022, and ETH has risen by more than 240% since November 2022. This cycle is similar to the 2018-2022 cycle, with ETH prices rising 6,000% from their lows.

8,ETHTotal Locked Value (TVL):

TVL tracks the value of altcoins and stablecoins in smart contracts and dApps. It reflects financial activity and liquidity. In the second quarter, TVL grew by 9%, indicating increased activity on the Ethereum blockchain.

9、FTXCash Distribution:

FTX will distribute cash, which may result in a large influx of cryptocurrency into the market if the recipient reinvests. Key dates: August 16 (trustee vote), October 7 (court approval deadline).

10、Stablecoins:

The MC (market value) of stablecoins is $162.5 billion, up $2 billion in two weeks, exceeding the level before 3AC. Stablecoins reflect the liquidity of cryptocurrencies and are a key long-term price prediction indicator. With capital flowing in, the bearish view is hard to sustain.