10 pictures: How have various asset classes performed since Trump was last elected?

Source: Asset Allocation Research Society

The US election has come to an end.

Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States.

On November 8, 2016, Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States.

It has been 8 years since Trump was last elected president. The following is a summary of the trends of major asset classes since Trump was last elected president of the United States.

(Note: This round of macroeconomic and monetary policies are somewhat different from those in 2016)

1. The trend of the US dollar after Trump was last elected

The rise in risk aversion is good for the US dollar.

2. The trend of the Nasdaq index after Trump’s last election

The financial, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains in the U.S. stock market.

3. Trend of S&P 500 after Trump’s last election

Financial, industrial, pharmaceutical and other sectors led the gains in the U.S. stock market.

4. Trend of US Treasury bond interest rates after Trump’s last election

Under the expected influence of Trump’s “loose fiscal” policy after his election, coupled with the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike, US Treasury bond interest rates rose rapidly, with the central axis rising rapidly from 1.8% to 2.6% in November.

5. Gold trend after Trump’s last election

Gold fell in the short term after Trump’s last election.

6. Crude oil trend after Trump's last election

One year after Trump's last election, crude oil rose by more than 45%

One year after Trump's last election, the Hang Seng Index rose by more than 30%

8. A-share trend after Trump's last election

Within one year of Trump's presidency, the CSI 300 rose by 19%.

Petrochemical, construction, and real estate performed relatively well, while electronics, computers, consumer services and other sectors lagged behind. In the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by the recovery of real estate, the A-share market performed relatively well and ushered in a slow bull market. Domestic demand and pro-cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals, construction, and real estate performed relatively well, while industries such as electronics, computers, and home appliances lagged behind in terms of growth. Overall, the market did not fully anticipate the trade friction issues at that time.

9. Equity-oriented fund trends after Trump's last election

The equity-oriented mixed fund index rose 9.42% within one year after Trump's last election.

10. Domestic bond trends after Trump’s last election

Three months after taking office, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 60 bp

U.S. stocks: medium-term volatility upward, but the upside is limited and volatility is increasing.

U.S. Treasury bonds: high-certainty strategy, but volatility continues, medium- and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds have a high cost-effectiveness ratio.
The U.S. dollar: continued to be strong, and inflationary attributes and risk aversion supported the U.S. dollar.
Gold: It may turn from positive to neutral, and the gold price fluctuates at a high level.
A-shares: medium-term neutral, need to pay attention to domestic policies, and structurally recommend a balanced allocation of dividends and growth.
Hong Kong stocks: layout at both ends in the volatility, pay attention to policy dividends and balanced new economy.
Domestic bonds: low-level fluctuations last longer, volatility increases, and need to pay attention to coupon product opportunities after overshoot.