12 Future Bitcoin Scenarios: From Bullish to Bearish

Author: Jeff Wilser, CoinDesk; Compiled by: White Water, Golden Finance

Just over three years ago, at the beginning of the last bull market cycle, I spoke with experts in the field and wrote "Bit The future of cryptocurrencies: 12 scenarios from bullish to bearish.

A lot has changed since then. When I started reporting, the price of Bitcoin was around $25,000. No one has heard of SBF, Bitcoin Ordinals or ChatGPT. No one owns a Bitcoin ETF.

So, as Bitcoin enters its fourth halving this April, it’s time to refresh and revise these scenarios, once again switching from bullish to bearish. Once again, we vaguely define “the future” as ten years from now—far enough to have room for play, but close enough to have a connection to reality.

One thing in our methodology has not changed: the humility to acknowledge that we are all moving blindly and no one really knows what will happen to Bitcoin. “Ten years from now, most of the biggest use cases will be crazy to us today,” Elizabeth Stark told me in 2021. “Kind of like a book that anyone can edit. Encyclopedia, sounds crazy to people nowadays."

Welcome to the future of Bitcoin, from regulatory hell to telepathic DeFi.

1. "Buy a cup of coffee" with Bitcoin

Swan CEO Cory Klippsten imagines,< span style="color: rgb(0, 112, 192);">It will be ten years before Bitcoin can finally be used in a truly mainstream way to pay for goods like coffee, beer and donuts. Klippsten predicts: "By 2035, you will be able to buy most goods and services around the world at great prices."

This does not mean that he believes that Bitcoin Will completely replace the US dollar. He expects most items to have “two price tags” – one for fiat and one for Bitcoin. "It's not going to replace all fiat currencies,"Klippsten said. “We will continue to live in a multi-currency world as always.”

2. Bitcoin-Powered Gaming

There are more than 3 billion gamers worldwide. Des Dickerson, CEO of TNHDR Games, envisions a future where billions of gamers willthanks to the speed of the Lightning Network Get rewarded in Bitcoin. "Bitcoin should be the native currency of the internet,"Dixon said. "So it goes without saying that Bitcoin should have been in the game."

Of course, this is all still theoretical. Dickerson said that THNDR already has 1.5 million users, but he also admitted that "unless there is a viral game containing Bitcoin, we will not see mass adoption."

3. TradFi Tames Bitcoin

In the first line of his white paper, Satoshi Nakamoto described Bitcoin as peer-to-peer electronic cash that would “allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”

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These words have been discussed and parsed for over 15 years. For many in the field, they are more iconic and inspiring than "We hold these truths to be self-evident." For many, the key provision is "no need to go through a financial institution."

That’s why Bitcoin’s biggest story of 2024 — the emergence of ETFs — is an awkward dynamic. Isaiah Jackson, author of "Bitcoin and Black America," believes ETFs are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, ETFs unlock a stream of new capital, which Jackson believes will "push prices higher." (So far, the charts agree.) But then again, ETF infusions of capital give Bay Ryder and Fidelity Global bring more power. "If you have enough Bitcoin, you can bribe lobbyists,"Jackson said. "You can convince them [politicians], 'Hey, we need to control Bitcoin mining.'"

The O Show host (and former CoinDesker) Wendy O shares the same concern. She acknowledged that there are real benefits to "ethical fraud" fueled by the ETF-driven surge in Bitcoin prices, but she also envisioned a A “TradFi steps in and manages Bitcoin for us” scenario.

4. ABI: Artificial Intelligence Bitcoin

With artificial intelligence As intelligence continues to evolve, we will soon see the rise of “intelligent agents” that can do things like book flights, pay bills, and order Thai food.

David Johnston, a major contributor to the Morpheus project, said: "No one has a bank account for artificial intelligence, but Bitcoin It’s perfect as a native digital means for AI to conduct transactions.”The project is building a decentralized trading and spending platform for AI agents to trade cryptocurrencies. (Morpheus is technically "chain agnostic," but Bitcoin's potential seems clear.)

The role of Bitcoin and artificial intelligence doesn't stop at consumption rates. “If you have a smart agent that can send transactions or access DeFi, you have a whole new set of tools,” Johnston said. Johnston said that just as ChatGPT made it easier for non-coders to code in plain English, in the future, you can easily use advanced DeFi tools without any technical knowledge or need to use a bank.

Johnston gave a simple example. "Suppose I want to earn native Bitcoin income, no wrappers, no bridges, and no third parties." This is difficult for a layman. (Not that a layperson would ever say the term “native Bitcoin yield,” but you get the idea.) Johnston says that with AI-powered Bitcoin, you could say: "I want my Bitcoin to be able to earn some money somehow - in a safe and decentralized way,"and it will Research to find a reliable, reputable, non-hosted solution and not “some bullshit preached by YouTube influencers.”

5. Obstacles from taxes and regulation

Wendy O said: “We don’t know what’s going to happen with regulation.” She is encouraged by El Salvador’s pro-Bitcoin policy, but worries that in the U.S. “there are so many There’s so much red tape, so many civil servants in so many countries. Different departments, no one knows what they’re going to classify it as.” She thinks an outright ban on Bitcoin is unlikely, but worries governments could “make it difficult for people to participate ecosystem".

Or, as Johnston suspects, the government creates "some kind of mechanism for converting Bitcoin into fiat currency" Bottlenecks”, such as forcing you to convert it to a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) first. In Jackson's opinion, if the value of 1 Bitcoin surges to $1 million in ten years, and if they have to use government numbers currency as an alternative, then this would "leave a lot of people into the trap of buying CBDC, and I think that's the surveillance and control they want."

Klippsten admitted< strong>Risk of regulation, but doubt politics will ultimately be good for Bitcoin. "The rules will change based on the will of the people," Klippsten said. "At some point, there will be a lot of people who primarily own Bitcoin...and they will make it extremely difficult for the politicians who stand in their way."

6. Shadow Bitcoin

This scene starts directly from the previous scene. Jackson said,If governments succeed in curbing or over-regulating Bitcoin, then there will naturally be a desire for "black market Bitcoin" - That is, Bitcoin off the government network. For example, people who earn Bitcoin through home mining, or who own Bitcoin, are harder, if not impossible, to track using tools like Chainanalysis.

These concerns are not new. The FBI has been tracking Bitcoin for more than a decade, with some seeing it as reliable law enforcement and others seeing it as a surveillance nightmare. Therefore, if tracking and regulation escalate, we could live in a world of “two Bitcoins” or “shadow Bitcoins,” where people might pay one price for tracking Bitcoins and a premium for shadow Bitcoins.

Then again, while Jackson acknowledges the concern, he also thinks it would be difficult for the government to actually enforce. Jackson said, By the time we reach mainstream adoption, there will literally be trillions of Bitcoin wallets, so "good luck stopping this."

7. Bitcoin thrives as a store of value

This one is very simple, but sometimes the simplest cases are also the most It could happen. Anthony Pompliano (aka “Pomp”) of Pomp Investments said: “Bitcoin’s core value proposition is a global digital store of value. ” “There are other potential use cases that may come to fruition, but the core proposition is the one most likely to last for decades.”

Pomp is even seeing a generational shift. Bitcoin is now "a benchmark for many young investors," he said, just as the S&P 500 became a benchmark for stock pickers. "If they can't beat Bitcoin, they'll 'buy it,'" Pomp said.

8. Machines send Bitcoin

Back in early 2021, amid the explosion of AI hype Elizabeth Stark has told me before that she envisions a future in which "machines will pay machine bills locally and instantly" span>, while"Tesla will pay for charging with Lightning Network over the Bitcoin network."

Three years later, that prediction looks more likely. Machines and even robots seem to cost money at some point. And "robot" doesn't necessarily mean a terminator. It can be as simple as the Internet of Things. How likely are these robots or machines to be consumed in the United States? Withdraw dollars from their Wells Fargo account?

Pomp said: “Bitcoin, stablecoins and digital currencies will become the currencies of choice for many automation use cases.” He believes that machines seeking instant settlement "will not be able to use electronic money because settlement times take multiple days . This is where Bitcoin or stablecoins really shine.”

9. Bitcoin Ordinals Explosive Adoption

For those paying close attention This may seem like a common and even boring topic for people in the cryptocurrency space, but if you asked a random person in the grocery store, "What do you think of Bitcoin Ordinals?" you'd get a weird look. Ordinals are not yet close to the mainstream. But they may come true in 10 years, which could change everything in the world of digital collectibles, making the NFT summer of 2021 seem a bit quaint in comparison.

“Once we start getting closer to mass adoption, I think people will start using Ordinals because they are more secure than NFTs. Safe,” Wendy said she also suspected it was “a long way off.”

10. The status quo continues

“I know it’s not very exciting,” Cas Piancey, co-host of the Crypto Critics Corner podcast Said, "But what I suspect is going to happen is that Bitcoin will be used primarily for the exact same purposes as it is now."

Piancey calls himself a cryptocurrency cynic, but that doesn't mean he Love being obsessed with Bitcoin. He could see the nuances. “When people think Bitcoin has no use cases, I generally disagree with that,” he said. He predicts that 10 years from now, Bitcoin will still be used for remittances; it will still be occasionally used as a tool for dissidents ; and is still held by many as a store of value.

He is not a doomsdayer. Therefore, he expects Bitcoin to continue to rise in 10 years, but he warned, “Those who say Bitcoin will become the next world currency are crazy.”

11. Black Swan leads to Bitcoin Coin Death

Maybe Bitcoin was hacked by a quantum computing hacker. Maybe there is a 51% attack. Maybe Bitcoin was destroyed by ChatGPT7.

So this is a "catch-all apocalyptic scenario" that humbly admits that we don't know what we don't know. (I explored the risk of doomsday in more detail in my original article .) Many in the field say Bitcoin dominance is “inevitable,” but few things in life are truly inevitable — Ask Just ask Thanos.

Isaiah Jackson is very bullish on Bitcoin, but even he admits that hacking via quantum computing, for example, is still theoretically possible. He believes the risk is low and suspects nefarious quantum hackers will first focus on more favorable targets such as sovereign states, but admits it is "always a risk."

12. Bitcoin sent via telepathy

Jackson provides the most interesting scenario: < strong>At some point, Bitcoin will be used on Mars.

Now he is back to surpass himself.

Jackson has been thinking about Noland Arbaughf, who is paralyzed from the shoulders down. Arbaughf then became the first patient to have a Neuralink chip implanted in his brain, and now he can play chess and even send tweets just by thinking about it. "It's like a use of force," Arbaughf said after "thinking" a tweet existed.

So Jackson realized something. If by 2024 we can send tweets by thinking, thenit will only be a matter of time before we send Bitcoins telepathically. "This guy just thought of a tweet and posted it," Jackson  said. One day we'll think, "This is the code for a private Bitcoin wallet."