2024: How AI will accelerate the transformation of the world

Source: Quantum

In 2024, both cutting-edge technologies and the companies that control them are becoming increasingly powerful, creating both excitement and fear. Driven by expectations that artificial intelligence (AI) will become a cornerstone of modern life, the value of companies such as Nvidia and Alphabet has soared. While these grand blueprints are still far in the future, it is undeniable that technology has affected markets, wars, elections, climate and daily life this year.

Perhaps this year, technology has had the greatest impact on the global economy. The stocks of the so-called "Big Seven" - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - have benefited greatly from the AI ​​boom, pushing the S&P 500 to new highs. Nvidia, which designs computer chips for many AI systems, has nearly tripled its stock price, leading the industry. These profits have stimulated an "arms race" in AI infrastructure, with major companies building large AI factories and data centers - which in turn have attracted criticism from environmentalists for their energy consumption. Some market observers have also expressed concerns about the global economy’s growing reliance on a handful of companies, which could have repercussions if those companies can’t deliver on their big promises. But as of early December, the value of these companies showed no signs of slowing down.

Although there weren’t any of ChatGPT’s 2023 breakthroughs, generative AI systems have also made progress in the past 12 months: Google’s DeepMind won a silver medal in a prestigious math competition; Google’s NotebookLM impressed users with its ability to convert written notes into concise podcasts; ChatGPT passed the Turing test hosted by Stanford University; and Apple integrated new AI tools into its latest iPhone. Beyond personal devices, AI has played a key role in predicting hurricanes and powering a growing fleet of driverless cars.

However, a more dangerous side of AI has also emerged. AI tools developed by companies such as Palantir and Clearview played a central role in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as they were able to identify foreign troops and bombing targets. AI is being incorporated into drones, surveillance systems, and cybersecurity. Generative AI has also permeated many of the 2024 elections. Candidates in some countries are posting large amounts of AI-generated content on social media. Some state actors are using deepfake text, images, audio, and video to spread disinformation on the internet and stoke fears about immigrants. After U.S. President-elect Donald Trump retweeted an AI-generated image of Taylor Swift endorsing him at a campaign event, the pop star posted her “concerns about AI” on Instagram and endorsed Kamala Harris instead.

Many of Swift’s young fans share her concerns, growing up in a generation that seems to be bearing the brunt of technology’s harms. This year, concerns about the effects of social media on mental health peaked with the publication of Jonathan Haidt’s bestselling book, The Anxious Generation, which directly linked smartphones to a rise in teenage depression. (Some scientists have questioned that correlation.) Social media platforms have responded with their own solutions: Instagram, for example, has put in place new guardrails for teenage users.

But many parents, lawmakers, and regulators believe the platforms themselves aren’t doing enough to protect children, and are taking action. New Mexico’s attorney general sued Snap Inc., alleging that Snapchat facilitated child sexual exploitation through its algorithms. Dozens of states have filed lawsuits against Meta, alleging it induced children and teens to become addicted to social media. In July, the U.S. Senate passed the Child Online Safety Act (KOSA), which would have held social media companies responsible for preventing harm. Most tech companies are opposing the bill, which has not yet passed the House.

Most of the potential harms of generative AI to children remain unknown. But in February, a teen killed himself after becoming obsessed with a Character.AI chatbot modeled after the Game of Thrones character Daenerys Targaryen. (The company called the situation “tragic” and told The New York Times it was adding safety features.) Regulators are also wary of the centralization that technology brings, arguing that it could lead to health crises, rampant misinformation, and weak links for global failures. They point to the Crowdstrike incident, which grounded planes and shut down banks around the world, and the Ticketmaster incident, which exposed the data of more than 500 million users.

U.S. President Biden signed a bill requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a U.S. ban. French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, accusing him of refusing to cooperate with them to stop the spread of child pornography, drugs and money laundering on the platform. Antitrust actions are also increasing around the world. In the United States, the Biden administration has launched several aggressive lawsuits to try to break up the monopoly of Google and Apple. A British regulator accused Google of using anti-competitive practices to dominate the online advertising market. India has also proposed an antitrust law, which has drawn fierce criticism from tech lobbyists.

But the tech industry may face less pressure next year, partly due to the efforts of Elon Musk, the world's richest man, whose net worth has soared by more than $100 billion (about 730 billion yuan) in the past year. Musk has experienced many battles in multiple fields. Tesla's failure to deliver its long-awaited self-driving car has unsettled investors. In Brazil, Platform X was briefly banned after a judge accused it of allowing false information to flourish. In the United States, regulators accused Musk of promoting hate speech and false information on Platform X and blatantly using a large public platform to canvass for his favored candidate, Donald Trump. Musk's company faces at least 20 investigations from various branches of government.

But Musk has triumphed by launching and capturing SpaceX rockets and implanting the first Neuralink chip into the brain of a paralyzed patient. His alliance with Trump paid off in the November election. Musk is now a key figure in Trump's transition team and is expected to lead a new government agency aimed at cutting $2 trillion in government spending. While the Tesla boss must deal with Trump's public opposition to electric vehicles, he can use his new position to influence the future of artificial intelligence. While Musk warns the public about the existential risks of artificial intelligence, he is also working to build a chatbot that is more powerful than ChatGPT, built by rival Sam Altman. Altman's OpenAI has received a lot of criticism this year for safety issues, but despite this, it raised a huge $6.6 billion (about 48.2 billion yuan) in October.

Is the growing influence of tech giants like Musk and Altman good for the world? In 2024, they spent a lot of time building frantically while criticizing regulators for hindering them. Their creations, and those of other tech giants, provide a lot of evidence that their projects can bring benefits, but also huge risks and harms.