2026 Crypto Industry Outlook: What is the market like in the eyes of major institutions?

Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

2026 is approaching, and various institutions have made predictions about the cryptocurrency industry. This article summarizes the predictions from these institutions to help you understand the industry's development prospects and predict future trends.

I. Crypto Market Trends

• Tommy Shaughnessy, Founding Partner of Delphi Ventures: BTC and SOL to New Highs

In terms of trading, never use leverage (see the October 10th event). It is predicted that both BTC and SOL will reach new all-time highs (ATH) in 2026. This is because the crypto industry is making very strong progress on a fundamental level, whether it's Wall Street participation, the advancement of the regulatory environment, or the development of the protocol layer; the overall trend is forward. The current market is in a digestion period following the one-off, highly disruptive 10/11 forced liquidation event, which "disrupted" the market structure in the short term.

However, once this impact is fully absorbed, prices will rebound like a stretched rubber band, reflecting the true progress of fundamentals. Bitcoin may be entering a multi-month downward cycle, potentially ushering in a "crypto winter" ahead of schedule for 2026. Analyst Brett Knoblauch believes that Bitcoin has fallen about 85 days from its current high, and prices may continue to be under pressure, even testing Strategy's average cost line of approximately $75,000. However, unlike previous cycles, this downturn is unlikely to be accompanied by large-scale liquidations or a systemic collapse. Cantor points out that the current market is dominated by institutions rather than retail investors, and the "divergence" between token price performance and on-chain fundamentals is widening, especially in the DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure sectors. From a regulatory perspective, the passage of the U.S. Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act is seen as a key turning point, expected to reduce policy uncertainty and encourage banks and asset management institutions to participate more deeply in the crypto market. Cantor summarizes that although 2026 may not see a new bull market, while prices are cooling, the institutionalization, compliance pathways, and on-chain infrastructure of the crypto industry are gradually being strengthened. The crypto market entered the new year with sluggish activity, but derivatives positions are quietly sending very different signals. Volatility is narrowing, capital flows are gradually increasing, and leverage ratios remain high, even as trading volume and participation continue to decline. ETF capital flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions are no longer coordinated, resulting in a seemingly calm market with underlying undercurrents. The downward trend in Bitcoin still exists, but it is very likely to turn upward in January. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43%, indicating a bullish signal; while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 30%, indicating a bearish signal. An RSI above 70% and a Stochastic Oscillator above 90% may indicate a bearish trend, while an RSI below 30% and a Stochastic Oscillator below 10% may indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend reversal, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish price level is $88,421, and the major bullish/bearish price level is $98,759. Ethereum may also see a trend reversal in January. Ethereum's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44%, indicating a bullish signal; while the Stochastic Oscillator is at 23%, indicating a bearish signal. An RSI above 70% and a Stochastic Oscillator above 90% may indicate a bearish trend, while an RSI below 30% and a Stochastic Oscillator below 10% may indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Ethereum is only 5% away from triggering a trend reversal, and the current trend is bearish. The key short-term bullish/bearish price level is $2,991, and the major bullish/bearish price level is $3,363.

• Kobeissi Letter: BTC Recovery

The search interest index (0-100) for "silver" in Google Trends rose to 83, a record high. Silver prices are projected to surge 175% by 2025 and are on track for their first eight-month consecutive rise since 1980. This year alone, the market capitalization of gold and silver has increased by $16 trillion. Gold and silver have risen four times and eight times the S&P 500 respectively year-to-date, with the rise in precious metal prices benefiting from further weakening of the US dollar. With Trump about to announce his new Federal Reserve chairman, the market expects the Fed to adopt a more dovish policy.

• Kobeissi Letter: BTC Recovery

The search interest index (0-100) for "silver" in Google Trends has risen to 83, a record high.

On December 12, when Trump was asked what level he hoped interest rates would be, he replied, "1%, or maybe even lower." Funds are flowing into the precious metals market as a safe-haven asset at an unprecedented pace. Bitcoin has fallen 6% so far this year, and Kobeissi Letter believes the crypto market is experiencing a mechanical bear market driven by excessive leverage liquidation, with Bitcoin expected to recover in 2026. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen: ETH Unlikely to Reach New Highs in 2026 Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that given Bitcoin's current market conditions, Ethereum is unlikely to reach new highs in 2026. Cowen points out that if Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, Ethereum will struggle to rise. Even if ETH returns to its all-time high of $4,878, it could be a "bull trap," with the price potentially falling sharply back to $2,000. Liquid Capital Founder Yi Lihua: 2026 Will Be a Bull Market! Yi Lihua stated in an article on the X platform: "Floating losses are short-term; the long-term trend is a bull market. First, from buying the dip this year, to selling the top before 1011, and then buying the dip again here, we have been transparent and consistent in our words and actions. Second, we are not blindly confident in large-scale bottom-fishing because our previous operations were correct. The team's daily research results all indicate that we are currently in the bottom range, and 2026 will be a major bull market. Finally, as I said before, we don't want to miss the opportunity for thousands of dollars in gains due to a few hundred dollars of fluctuation. We will continue to buy ETH on dips with $1 billion." II. Comprehensive Forecast Galaxy Research: BTC Bitcoin's market volatility in 2026 is too great to predict, but the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in 2026 still exists, and it is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. Other key predictions include: • Stablecoin trading volume may surpass the US ACH system in 2026; • The Solana ecosystem may continue to expand, and enterprise-grade public chains will move from experimentation to real settlement; • The US market may see more crypto ETFs and institutional inflows; • DeFi, tokenized assets, and AI-integrated on-chain payments will further develop, and are seen as an important force driving the next stage of crypto infrastructure evolution.

• Coinbase Institutional: Crypto Market Depends on Continued Expansion of Key Market Structures
  

In its latest research outlook, Coinbase Institutional points out that in 2026, the core of the crypto market will no longer be driven by narratives, but rather by the ability of key market structures to continue expanding under more stringent conditions. The report, authored by David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase, and researcher Colin Basco, argues that traditional cyclical models centered on retail speculation, token issuance, and single-protocol catalysis are gradually becoming ineffective. The report lists perpetual contracts as a key pillar of price discovery, noting that derivatives trading volume already dominates on most major exchanges. Although the derivatives market will experience deleveraging adjustments at the end of 2025, Coinbase views this as a structural reset rather than a decline in demand, believing that stricter margin requirements and risk control measures enhance the market's ability to absorb shocks.

Furthermore, Coinbase believes that prediction markets are shifting from experimental products to more sustainable financial infrastructure, with increased trading volume and liquidity attracting more non-crypto native participants. Stablecoins and payments are considered the sectors with the most practical use value, with their applications in settlement, cross-border transfers, and liquidity management continuing to grow, and gradually integrating with automated trading and AI applications. Coinbase states that 2026 will be a crucial year to test whether these core markets can continue to develop under intense regulatory and risk constraints.

• Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb: BTC to Break $150,000

BTC will break $150,000 by the end of the year, but its market share will decline; fintech public chains such as Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain may fall short of market expectations, while Ethereum and Solana will exceed expectations; top developers will continue to choose neutral infrastructure public chains; a major tech company (Google, Facebook, Apple, etc.) will launch or acquire a crypto wallet in 2026; three major PerpDEXs will take 90% of the market share in this sector, while other projects can only compete for 10%; equity investment is growing rapidly and will account for more than 20% of total DeFi investment by the end of the year; the supply of stablecoins will increase by about 60% in 2026, the proportion of USD stablecoins will remain above 99%, and the dominance of USDT will slightly decline to about 55%; the Clarity Act will officially become law, but it will require a significant amount of bargaining.

• Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko: Stablecoins surpass $1 trillion

The total size of stablecoins has surpassed $1 trillion; quantum computing (QC) and controlled nuclear fusion (Fusion) will remain as difficult to truly implement as they are today; AI will solve a millennium-old problem; 100,000 humanoid robots have been shipped; Starship has completed two successful commercial flights.

• Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko: Stablecoins surpass $1 trillion

The total size of stablecoins has surpassed $1 trillion; quantum computing (QC) and controlled nuclear fusion (Fusion) will still be difficult to truly implement as they are today; AI will solve a millennium-old problem; 100,000 humanoid robots have been shipped; Starship has completed two successful commercial flights.

• JayYu, Junior Partner at Pantera Capital, published an article making 12 predictions for crypto trends in 2026, including:

· Capital-efficient consumer credit: Easy-to-use lending applications will be launched through on-chain/off-chain credit modeling, modular design, and AI behavioral learning.

· Differentiation of prediction markets: Prediction markets will be divided into financial (integration with DeFi, leverage) and cultural (community-driven, long-tail enthusiasts) directions.

· Proxy commerce and x402 expansion: Proxy commerce will expand to micropayments and regular payments using x402 endpoints, with Solana surpassing Base in low-volume transactions.

· AI as a crypto interface layer: AI-assisted transactions (such as trend analysis) will become mainstream and gradually integrated into consumer applications.

* **Rise of Tokenized Gold:** Tokenized gold has become an important asset in the RWA (Real-World Asset) market, emerging as a store of value due to the dollar issue. * **Bitcoin Quantum Panic:** Breakthroughs in quantum technology have sparked institutional discussions about Bitcoin's quantum resistance; the technology has not yet threatened its value. * **Unified Privacy Development Experience:** Privacy technologies (such as Ethereum's Kohaku) offer simplified development interfaces, potentially leading to the launch of Privacy-as-a-Service. * **DAT Consolidation:** Digital asset trading platforms (DATs) are consolidating into 2-3 per major market, achieved through liquidation or mergers. * **Rethinking Token and Equity Separation:** The governance token crisis is prompting companies to choose privatization, potentially introducing redeemable equity tokens. * **Perpetual DEX Consolidation:** Hyperliquid dominates the market, with the HIP3 market and yield stablecoins (such as HyENA) becoming key, while USDC loses ground on HYPE. * **Multi-chain Prop AMM:** Prop AMM expands to multiple chains, accounting for more than half of Solana's trading volume and pricing more assets such as RWA. * **Traditional fintech adopts stablecoins:** Stripe, Ramp, and others use stablecoins to process international payments, and stablecoin chains like Tempo serve as bridges for fiat currency deposits. * **Notably, JayYu claims his 2025 predictions have an accuracy rate of 7/10, including a precise assessment of the Solana developer migration.

III. Macro Catalysts

• Wintermute OTC Trading Director Jake: Macroeconomic Factors at the Start of the Year

“It’s hard to imagine the market experiencing much volatility this week. Most institutional trading departments will remain on the sidelines until January 1st. Once the new year begins, traders will re-enter the market with a ‘zero’ approach, focusing their attention on a range of catalysts. The start of 2026 will see: the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee (expected); the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs (expected); the Clarity Act entering the revision/deliberation phase (expected); updates to Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR) regulatory requirements; the decision on whether to include crypto-related stocks in the MSCI index (January 15th); the FOMC interest rate meeting (January 28th); and the deadline for US government funding to mature (January 30th). All of this occurs after the end of the tax-loss sell-off (narrative), the expiration of large-scale options, and the accumulation of short positions.”

• HS Dent Founder Harry Dent: Dollar Crash in 2026

Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent Investment Firm, recently warned that the worst market crash in history will arrive in 2026. Dent predicts that the current market bubble, which has lasted for nearly 17 years, will burst, causing the stock market to fall by 90%. He describes it as the worst market environment since the Great Depression. Notably, Dent refuted the view that "overheated speculation is limited to artificial intelligence (AI)." He stated that stocks, real estate, and digital assets are all deeply mired in a debt-driven "super bubble."

HS Dent Founder Harry Dent recently warned that the worst market crash in history will arrive in 2026. Dent explains, “But this bubble is different because it expanded rapidly from the very beginning of 2009, without allowing a recession to thoroughly clear out the debt and various problems; it took off directly and has continued to this day.” This American economist traces the start of this cycle back to the period following the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that policymakers prevented a natural economic reset through monetary intervention. Specifically, the global economy should have experienced a longer downward adjustment, similar to that of the 1930s, but aggressive deficit spending accelerated the expansion. Dent states that early 2026—especially January—will be a crucial period for determining whether the bubble will finally burst or continue for another year. This is because, historically, a strong stock market performance in the first week and month of January often foreshadows a strong market trend for the entire year; however, a weak January would further confirm his bearish view. Dent emphasizes that every major speculative bubble has ultimately ended in disastrous losses, and he believes this time will be no exception. He said, "The bubble will eventually burst, and this time it's gone way out of proportion." Dent concluded that the only asset that might "survive" is US Treasury bonds, "because they can print money to pay it off." On this point, this economist seems to disagree with some other prominent economists, including Peter Schiff, who recently predicted an unprecedented dollar collapse in 2026. Musk stated on the X platform that the US economy could achieve double-digit growth within 12-18 months, and even triple-digit growth within five years if smart technology can be used as an indicator of economic growth. This signal has attracted attention from the crypto community, including ProCap Chairman Anthony Pompliano. Bitcoin holders typically pay attention to macroeconomic signals, such as economic growth forecasts and central bank policies, to judge how broad economic trends will affect Bitcoin price movements. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been one of the catalysts closely watched by investors, as a loose financial environment could push up the prices of risky assets.

IV. ETFs

• Bitfinex Analyst: Crypto ETF Assets Under Management to Double

Driven by institutional adoption and new BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrency products, the assets under management of cryptocurrency ETFs could double to $400 billion by the end of 2026.

• Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan: Record ETF Inflows Expected in 2026

The recent slump in the crypto market is mainly due to two factors: "investors selling in anticipation of the upcoming four-year cycle" and the "10/11 market crash." Once these negative factors dissipate, the market will rebound.

Furthermore, Matt Hougan pointed out that the development trajectory of crypto ETFs is "extremely optimistic," with some large brokerages starting to enter the market. He predicts 2026 will be a record year for crypto ETF inflows, and as unique factors such as tokenization and institutional adoption become the main drivers of price, the cryptocurrency market will gradually mature according to its own fundamentals. V. DAT MoreMarkets Co-founder Altan Tutal: DAT's Outlook is Not Optimistic With the sharp decline in the stock prices of several leading institutions, digital asset treasury companies face a grim development prospect as they head towards 2026. "Looking ahead to next year, I don't think the outlook for the digital asset treasury (DAT) industry is optimistic," said Altan Tutal, co-founder and CEO of cryptocurrency yield platform MoreMarkets. In 2025, a large number of DAT companies emerged, opening up another avenue for Wall Street investors to enter the cryptocurrency market. In October of that year, Bitcoin prices climbed to their peak, attracting billions of dollars from heavyweight investors, causing many DAT stocks to surge; however, the subsequent overall decline in the cryptocurrency market severely dragged down their valuations. Faced with an increasingly crowded market, Tutal predicts that the number of "followers" in the industry will decrease significantly. He predicts, "The vast majority of digital asset treasury companies will exit the market along with other DATs." Tutal points out that DATs focused on non-mainstream cryptocurrencies "will be the first to exit." This is because they cannot maintain their market capitalization above the value of their cryptocurrency holdings—a metric known as the market capitalization-to-net-asset ratio (mNAV), a key reference point for investors. He also stated, "I suspect that even the leading DATs corresponding to mainstream assets like Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple will soon follow suit." VI. IPOs: Six IPOs to Watch According to Dlnews, the cryptocurrency industry raised $3.4 billion through IPOs in 2025, and more high-profile listings are expected in 2026. Six noteworthy IPOs include: Kraken – a US cryptocurrency exchange valued at $20 billion, planning an IPO in the first half of 2026; Consensys – the developer of the MetaMask wallet, valued at $7 billion, preparing for its IPO in partnership with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs; BitGo – Animoca, the first major cryptocurrency custody institution to go public, focusing on compliance and security; Brands – a Web3 gaming giant, expected to go public through a reverse merger, valued at approximately $6 billion; Ledger – a hardware wallet maker that has sold over 6 million devices, positioning itself as the "Apple of crypto security"; and Bithumb – a South Korean exchange, having selected Samsung Securities as its underwriter, planning a domestic listing in South Korea. Analysts believe these IPOs reflect the maturing of the cryptocurrency industry, particularly in the areas of compliance, infrastructure, and security.

VII. DeFi

• Framework Ventures Co-founder Vance Spencer: The Rise of DeFi Blue-Chip Projects

“2025 wasn’t the year the crypto industry was hoping for, but it’s likely a year necessary for the industry to continue moving forward. As an industry, we’ve essentially said goodbye to memes, NFTs, low-circulation, high-FDV projects, and the whole consumer-oriented narrative. My prediction for 2026 is: a significant decrease in token issuance, a greater focus on mainstream assets (ETH, BTC), and continued institutional funding flowing into DeFi blue-chip projects with reasonable value capture mechanisms.”

“2025 wasn’t the year the crypto industry was hoping for, but it’s likely a year necessary for the industry to continue moving forward. As an industry, we’ve essentially said goodbye to memes, NFTs, low-circulation, high-FDV projects, and the whole consumer-oriented narrative. My prediction for 2026 is: a significant decrease in token issuance, a greater focus on mainstream assets (ETH, BTC), and continued institutional funding flowing into DeFi blue-chip projects with reasonable value capture mechanisms.

This buying pressure may be stronger than many people expect, especially given the combination of continuous buybacks and high levels of financial discipline at the protocol level. The future of this industry is already very clear: stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA), lending and capital markets, and asset management will be the dominant directions. We will address many issues in the cryptocurrency space by reducing blind expansion, focusing on meticulous work, and pursuing compliance. This is a bullish pattern, but rebounds, surges, and exit opportunities will be highly concentrated. "


VIII. GameFi

• Delphi Digital: Web 2.5 Games Quietly Rise

2025 will be a difficult year for GameFi. Overall funding has decreased by more than 55% year-on-year, some highly anticipated projects have underperformed upon launch, and market enthusiasm has clearly cooled. However, if we take a longer view, the overall situation is more complex.

We are witnessing the quiet rise of Web 2.5 games. These games treat blockchain as a pure infrastructure layer, often skipping token design and focusing instead on real revenue and user experience. Studios like Fumb Games, Mythical Games, and Wemade/Wemix continue to generate substantial revenue while leveraging blockchain in their own unique ways: it helps them improve profit margins, enhance user engagement, or introduce new monetization channels. In contrast, while native Web3 games have also generated millions of dollars (six-seven figures) in revenue this year, their player base remains small and largely composed of bots. Once incentives dry up, the fun of the game often disappears, although some teams are experimenting with new mechanisms to address this issue. Web 2.5 studios can now fully leverage the advantages of blockchain without forcing users to participate in speculation or making excuses for a clunky user experience. The increasing popularity of stablecoins will accelerate this trend. Small transactions, global payment channels, and user engagement-based reward mechanisms will all become more convenient.

IX. AI

Forbes recently released its top ten predictions for artificial intelligence (AI) in 2026:

1. Anthropic will be the first to go public. Anthropic is expected to IPO first in 2026 to fill a funding gap of up to $20 billion. Although OpenAI's funding needs are even greater (approximately $150 billion), its IPO is expected to be delayed due to Sam Altman's strong private fundraising capabilities and the complexity of its business (involving chips, space, etc.).

2. SSI research and technical details will be revealed.

Predictions suggest that in 2026, core research details of "Secure Superintelligence" (SSI), founded by Ilya Sutskever, will be released, and its new technological paradigm will force OpenAI and DeepMind to adjust their R&D roadmaps. 3. Substantial progress in China's chip localization. It is predicted that by 2026, China's domestically produced AI chips will make substantial progress in performance and ecosystem, gradually reducing dependence on the US. 4. AGI cooling down, returning to practical AI. The grand narrative of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and superintelligence will gradually cool down; in 2026, people will focus more on how companies implement AI to create commercial value. 5. Chip "depreciation schedules" will receive significant attention. AI chips are rapidly updated, and setting chip depreciation periods of 5 years or more will face risks. Shortening depreciation periods will directly affect profit statements and influence external judgments about the profitability and bubble risks of the AI ​​industry, especially for asset-heavy companies like CoreWeave. 6. "Self-developed chips" will become a trend. The current AI industry heavily relies on a few general-purpose chip giants like Nvidia. It is predicted that by 2026, "self-developed chips" will become a trend, with companies using AI-aided design tools to develop custom chips specifically for their own businesses. 7. Sam Altman may step down as CEO of OpenAI. It is predicted that he will hand over management to professional managers (such as Fidji Simo) and focus on strategic planning or research. 8. The unemployment problem caused by AI will become a focus of the two-party struggle. In the 2026 US midterm elections, the Republican Party will face a dilemma between supporting business innovation and responding to the unemployment anxieties of blue-collar workers. 9. Pharmaceutical giants will begin mergers and acquisitions. As startups like Chai Discovery and Nabla Bio prove that AI can generate high-quality antibody drugs, AI-driven drug development is no longer an empty promise. It is predicted that by 2026, traditional pharmaceutical giants will no longer be satisfied with cooperation and may begin mergers and acquisitions to acquire core technologies and talent. 10. Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are becoming mainstream. Non-invasive technologies (such as ultrasound) and safer invasive technologies (such as surface patches from Precision Neuroscience) will rapidly emerge, challenging Neuralink's "puncture" approach. 10. Precious Metals Gold could move toward $5,000 an ounce in the first half of next year, while silver has the potential to reach around $90 an ounce. Furthermore, platinum and palladium have surged due to tight supply, tariff uncertainty, and rotating investment demand for gold; platinum has risen approximately 165% year-to-date, and palladium over 90%. Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities, stated that platinum is supported by strong industrial demand, with US inventory holders replenishing their stocks amid sanctions-related concerns, which is helping to maintain high prices. Economist, financial analyst, and bestselling author of *Currency Wars*, Jim Rickards: Gold at $10,000, Silver at $200. He wouldn't be surprised if gold prices reach $10,000 in 2026 and silver subsequently rises to $200. He stated that the various factors driving the entire precious metals market, with gold leading the way, will continue to play a role next year: 1. The traditional drivers behind the current gold bull market—central bank demand and relatively stagnant supply—will remain effective for a considerable period in 2026. 2. A surge in new, unconventional factors could push prices further up. Increased demand from institutional investors—including sovereign wealth funds and endowments—could drive prices higher again. 3. Geopolitical risk aversion—recent European attempts to seize Russian assets may also be impacting gold demand, as some countries have begun using gold allocations to mitigate the risk of potential US asset seizures.