3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Won’t Be ‘Boring’ in September

While Bitcoin failed to close above the psychological $60,000 level on the weekly chart, long-term holders (LTH) continue to pursue a bullish strategy in 2024.

Bitcoin $60,737

The price closed below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the second consecutive week, but in the past 24 hours, it has rebounded above $60,000. Several charts indicate that long-term holders are not swayed by the current price action. Is a bullish breakout possible after August?

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Realize Cap of $3 Billion

In 2024, BTC price closed below the 200-day moving average only three times. As shown in the chart below, July 4 marked the first close below the 200-day moving average.

It took less than ten days for the Bitcoin/USD pair to regain its position above the moving average. This time, it took less than 24 hours for the asset to return above the indicator, confirming that bullish momentum is slowly picking up this week.

Bitcoin investors can be divided into short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH). They have different trading strategies and time preferences.

STHs are investors or traders who engage in day trading or scalping, focusing on making quick returns in a relatively short period of time. Many of them are retail or low- to medium-net-worth individuals or entities. 

On the other hand, LTHs consist of traders who adopt a long-term buy-and-hold strategy of at least six months. Many of these entities represent high-net-worth individuals or large organizations, especially in the era of Bitcoin ETFs. 

Recent data indicates that LTH's realized market value change recorded a positive net worth of $3 billion, which was previously observed in December 2023.

Bitcoin realized cap is the cumulative sum of all realized profits minus realized losses. In other words, the total value has flowed into Bitcoin on the chain, minus the capital that has flowed out due to losses.

Cryptocurrency analyst Amr Taha highlighted the above changes in realized market value and said:

When STH increases sales, it shows that LTH continues to accumulate and STH is being sold at worse prices.

BTC miners' selling pressure has flattened

Bitcoin miners have been selling BTC through exchanges as net flows declined in the second quarter of 2024. However, selling pressure has flattened over the past two weeks as miner reserves began to show signs of a reversal in the accumulation trend.

The chart shows that miners' selling pressure has dropped significantly in August, indicating that BTC may stabilize in the current price range before next month.

Stablecoin Supply Ratios Lean Bullish

One ​​of the key arguments for the bullish case for Bitcoin is that global liquidity is starting to increase, i.e. the global M2 money supply.

Similar to global liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) also indicates how much liquidity there is in stablecoins that can be used to buy Bitcoin.

The SSR is defined as the ratio of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to the total market capitalization of all stablecoins. A falling ratio indicates that the supply of stablecoins is increasing while the market capitalization is lagging, meaning that more liquidity is available to buy the asset.

Currently, the SSR ratio has dropped to levels last seen in early February 2024, which means there is a lot of liquidity in the market that could spark a rally.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno also pointed out the same development, highlighting that the total stablecoin market cap has reached an all-time high of $165 billion. He added, “This means that there is more liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.”

BTC price approaches ‘ChoCH’ level above $62,000

After a disappointing weekly close, Bitcoin has seen a bullish recovery, with a return of 4.50% over the past two days. Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to break out of a descending channel pattern, which could have a bullish impact.

However, Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above the pattern at $61,700. The confluence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages is also located around this price point, suggesting that it can continue to deny a bullish breakout.

If Bitcoin can break above the collective resistance provided by the EMAs and $61,700, a bullish reversal would be confirmed when BTC breaks above $62,737 in September, which could lead to a market signal called “ChoCH” or “Change of Character” — a sign of a trend reversal.