Bitcoin is still trying to consolidate $20,000 as support as bears take control as they begin the second week of September.

Bitcoin traded sideways over the weekend, closing the week almost exactly at the $20,000 mark, but this important psychological level is already struggling.

This month, the market is anticipating further declines in bitcoin prices — a phenomenon known as the “September bear market,” where BTC prices typically fall in September. So far, there is little evidence that bitcoin prices will be different this year from previous years.

In September 2022, BTC/USD fell by 1.5%. Although the decline is not large, there are still many potential catalysts.

Macroeconomic turmoil remains the theme across much of the world, with the focus increasingly shifting to Europe as the energy crisis unfolds and the euro falls to 20-year lows against the dollar.

Stocks are also struggling against a strong dollar, and cryptocurrencies have little room to rise.

Still, signs of a macro bottom in bitcoin prices have been popping up in recent weeks, leading a handful of analysts to remain confident in the outlook.

With $20,000 a key focus, Cointelegraph examines 5 potential bitcoin price triggers for the week ahead.

Bitcoin closed last week at $20,000

Bitcoin bulls had an easy weekend, as a lack of volatility saw prices fluctuate around $20,000 for two days.

The lack of general direction means that existing price forecasts remain unchanged, and even the weekly close itself continues to generate speculation.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the price of bitcoin on Bitstamp was almost exactly $20,000 before downward pressure in the first hours of the new week.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) Source: TradingView

However, traders who expect prices to retest June's lower levels near $17,600 see no reason to change their views.

Prominent trader Il Capo of Crypto reiterated plans for a short squeeze towards $23,000, before $16,000 as a potential bottom reversal.

Another trader, Cheds, meanwhile confirmed that the 4-hour chart "continues to chop" after bouncing off the range low to close the week.

Meanwhile, TMV Crypto revealed a downside bias on the same time frame in his latest update, highlighting Relative Strength Index (RSI) data.

“H4 RSI is currently bearish. A loss of $19,700 would keep BTC avoiding the August low and approaching the July low of $18,777.”

Meanwhile, data from on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators showed that bulls were “fighting” for $20,000 by the close, as new support on Binance’s order book moved immediately below $20,000.

"Caution. This week is going to be volatile," a subsequent tweet concluded after the close.

European energy crisis alarmed the macro stage

In terms of macro markets, the Federal Reserve will step back into the background this week, and the next important economic data will be released on September 13 in the form of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI).

However, risk asset traders have had little chance to rest as events in Europe have provided a new arena for volatility.

As of September 5, the euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since September 2002, falling below $0.99.

The weakness comes against a backdrop of volatile energy markets. Russia was due to reopen its Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline over the weekend, but gas supplies will now be suspended indefinitely after a sudden rerouting due to maintenance issues.

Earlier news said that the EU plans to follow the Group of Seven (G7), the implementation of energy price caps on Russia. In response, Russia threatened to stop all energy imports.

As a result, the natural gas market has soared again this week after previously plunging from record highs.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, believes that the only way out for the euro may be to fall.

Hayes reiterated an assumption made in a blog post earlier this year, saying the euro entered a "doom loop" over the weekend.

"Either dollar liquidity increases to drive down the value of the dollar, helping Europe pay its energy import bill, or Europe reaches a détente deal with Russia. I guess the third option is to shut down industrial and residential heating," he wrote.

The crisis is so severe that even PlanB, the creator of the S2F Bitcoin price model, believes that bargain-hunting opportunities should come second to fundamental demand — even as BTC/USD approaches two-year lows.

"People who have to choose between food and gas should not buy Bitcoin," he tweeted last week.

Dollar index hits 20-year high

Just like last week, persistent resistance to cryptocurrencies and risk assets continues in the form of a stronger U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has formed a tradition of hitting new 20-year highs throughout 2022, and September was no exception.

Still, the DXY broke above 110 this week for the first time since June 2002, and the euro was just one of the many fiat casualties of its rampant bull run.

Dollar Index (DXY) One-Month Candle Chart Source: TradingView

"Previous resistance levels are being tested as support again, and basically nobody wants to see that happen to the dollar," Scott Melker, popular trader and podcast host known as "The Wolf of All Streets," concluded over the weekend.

“DXY is currently breaking through multi-decade resistance at 110. BTC is consolidating and broke its daily bear flag two weeks ago,” continued popular trader Roman.

"If DXY continues to rise, it's hard for me to see a bullish case. I expect a crash in stocks and cryptocurrencies."

Holders continue to strengthen resolve

In typical bear market style, long-term holders (LTH) are battling to weather the Bitcoin price storm, setting records in the process.

Data this week from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that even bitcoins purchased a year ago are increasingly going dormant.

Despite unrealized losses, buyers refused to capitulate.

The proportion of Bitcoin supply that has been dormant in wallets for a year or more has thus reached an all-time high of 65.78%.

Data from Glassnode also shows that in 2022, holding trajectories for a year or more have significantly steepened, indicating that the determination of most LTH is strengthening.

Graph of % of Bitcoin supply that has been dormant for 1 year or more Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Meanwhile, a complementary metric, the amount of bitcoin held or otherwise out of circulation, reached its highest level in nearly two years.

Currently, 7,464,791 bitcoins are held or lost.

Graph of the number of bitcoins held or lost Source: Glassnode/Twitter

Meanwhile, Whalemap, another monitoring resource, pointed out last week that the spot price of Bitcoin has fallen below the total realized price of Bitcoin held for one to two years.

“Only 3 times in Bitcoin history have the realized price been below the realized price for 1-2 year holders. Now is the 3rd time,” commented the Whalemap team.

Bitcoin Realized Price Annotated Chart Source: Whalemap/Twitter

Realized price refers to the total price at which a batch of BTC was last moved. The combined realized price of Bitcoin is currently around $21,600.

Market sentiment returns to six-week low

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index only touched 20/100 over the weekend.

Today, the index is firmly back in "extreme fear" territory, having more than halved in the past three weeks alone, suggesting that market participants are experiencing massive cold-bloodedness.

The 20/100 reading was last seen on July 18.

Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (screenshot) Source: Alternative.me

Meanwhile, late last month, PlanB described the current sentiment as historic fear based on the distance between spot and realized prices.

Won't stay blue forever. Macros and markets may be different, but humans don't change, human behavior is driven by greed (red) and fear (blue).
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) August 29, 2022

"In my opinion, everyone is expecting a global recession and a collapse of all markets, which means that most of the markets will be priced in. Any hint of recovery will lift the market," he said. Added in related comments.