Bear market? Analyst Says Current Bitcoin Price Drop Is Still In Line With Previous Bitcoin Cycles

A new study argues that there will be "at least one more push" ahead of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching its all-time high this halving cycle.

In a series of tweets about the current Bitcoin price action, popular analyst TechDev believes that, contrary to what many believe, there is nothing unusual about BTC/USD in 2022.

Bitcoin in 2021: Not much to see

The price of bitcoin has fallen 40 percent from its all-time high of $69,000 in November last year, and sentiment has been hit as well — with "extreme fear" still characterizing the bitcoin and altcoin markets.

For a TechDev known for its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, there is little cause for concern.

He analyzed the relationship between new wallet addresses and price action, showing that last year’s situation — where the number of new addresses reached lower highs while prices reached higher highs — was not unique.

“In 4 out of 6 corrections there were divergences where prices made new highs and new addresses made new lows,” read a comment on both posts.

"...to me, all six were corrections and volumes were falling."

The low volume was briefly in the headlines amid concerns that Bitcoin was experiencing excessive volatility due to lack of liquidity.

Overall, price action relative to Fibonacci levels has remained well within historical norms, so there's no reason to think another all-time high won't emerge before the bear market phase arrives, TechDev added.

“Local volumes and new addresses are falling as corrections have been happening, and our current correction (since February 2021) has occurred between the same two-cycle Fibonacci,” he concluded.

Bitcoin new addresses (2-week moving average) vs. BTC/USD with Fibonacci levels. Source: TechDev/Twitter

recovery in waiting

As Cointelegraph reported, interest in Bitcoin has broadly declined over the past year, especially when it comes to retail investors.

However, seasoned traders remain poised, leverage remains near record highs and institutions are thought to start re-entering the market.

In the fourth quarter, TechDev meanwhile began to highlight the trend of Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which again indicated that a higher all-time high should be in sight.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC/USD RSI remains significantly “oversold,” which has consistently led to price reversals and upward pressure in the past.

BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart (Bitstamp) and RSI Source: TradingView

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