Bitcoin may be on the verge of a retail sell-off as inflows into exchanges surge to a near three-and-a-half-year high.
On June 14, users of 21 major exchanges collectively sent bitcoin to their wallets, according to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
As BTC/USD fell to lows of $20,800, traders appeared to be in a panic, and despite a brief reversal to $23,000, few seemed willing to believe that the worst was over.
Since then, spot price action has returned to around $21,000, while 24-hour exchange inflows amounted to 59,376 BTC.
According to CryptoQuant data, this is the largest single-day inflow since November 30, 2018. On November 30, 2018, the net inflow of the exchange was 83,481 BTC.
On May 9, 2022, the platform monitored by CryptoQuant had a net inflow of 29,082 BTC.
People may now be concerned whether there will be more sell-side pressure in the Bitcoin market in the days and weeks ahead. About a month after the high inflows in 2018, BTC/USD hit a cycle bottom of $3,100, 84% below the previous all-time high of $20,000.
Bitcoin exchange net flow graph source: CryptoQuant
As Cointelegraph recently reported, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will repeat its current cycle. An 84% drop would imply a bottom of just $11,000.
In another price situation analysis, statistician Willy Woo concluded that macro market movements will determine Bitcoin’s bottom.
"I think it's simpler than that, in my opinion we'll find a bottom when macro markets stabilize," read a Twitter post exploring various theories of price support.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ju Ki-Young analyzed who has been dumping Bitcoin so far, pointing to derivatives traders and the world's largest exchange, Binance.
Ki noted that the largest “Destroyed Bitcoin Dormant Days” (CDD) — unmoved Bitcoins that became active after a period of dormancy — came from these specific venues.
“This selling pressure is coming from Binance and FTX,” he tweeted on June 13:
“Bitcoin Exchange CDD Inflows Show Old Whale Deposits. Binance CDD Inflows Hit One-Year Highs Before Falling.”
Binance, FTX’s Bitcoin CDD (screenshot) Source: Ki Young Ju/Twitter
This is in stark contrast to other whales, who have been relatively calm during the price turmoil that began with Terra's implosion in May, Ki added.
Meanwhile, data from on-chain analytics resource Coinglass shows the extent of FTX’s downside bias, especially in recent days.
Binance, FTX’s Bitcoin Funding Rate Source: Coinglass
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