Bitcoin (BTC) may already be beginning its new macro uptrend if historical "hodl" habits repeat.
That was the conclusion from research into the latest data covering the amount of the BTC supply dormant for one year or more as of July 2022.
According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who uploaded the findings to social media on July 29, a “rounded top” formation in "hodled" BTC is in the process of completing.
Once it does, the price should react — just like on multiple occasions before.
The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down the supply according to when each Bitcoin last moved. One year ago or more — the one-year HODL Wave — currently reflects the majority of the supply.
Johal’s accompanying chart shows that the greater the proportion of the overall supply stationary for at least a year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro bottom.
More importantly, however, a slowing of the one-year HODL Wave — indicating accumulation is calming down — followed by the start of a reversal has always come at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend.
This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is thus being keenly eyed as a potential source of hope with Bitcoin already making up lost ground.
In comments, Johal argued that few had been paying attention to HODL Waves.
Separate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, meanwhile, highlighted the ongoing trend of Bitcoin leaving exchanges.
Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘getting interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week high
BTC in exchange wallets now accounts for just 12.6% of the overall supply, down 4.6% of the overall supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.
#Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues its macro decline, reaching 12.6% of the Circulating Supply (2.4M $BTC).
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 29, 2022
Exchange balances have now seen a macro outflow of over 4.6% of the circulating supply since the March 2020 ATH.
Live Chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05ztpic.twitter.com/vhKCudqGUr
In BTC terms, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The number is the lowest since July 2018.
Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the accelerating trend of removing coins from exchanges.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Venezuela announced a cryptocurrency mining ban over the weekend, threatening to disconnect all domestic cryptocurrency mining farms from the national power grid.
AlexRecent resignations at OpenAI, including Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike from the "superalignment team," follow disagreements over prioritising safety amid the launch of GPT-4o. Concerns linger over OpenAI's shift towards profit and potential security risks in collaborations like Apple's iOS 18 update integrating OpenAI technology.
WeatherlyBitcoin approaches $69,000 with traders optimistic about continued gains, supported by favorable economic policies and strong ETF inflows.
MiyukiThe individual identified by Pump.Fun as the former employee responsible for the recent $1.9 million exploit, has been apprehended and subsequently released on bail in London.
KikyoAndrew Tate plans to ditch fiat for Bitcoin, investing $100 million in the cryptocurrency due to frustrations with traditional banking and inflation concerns. El Salvador's bold adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, coupled with its innovative mining methods using volcanic power, showcases a growing trend towards digital currencies and renewable energy in the global financial landscape.
AnaisRumors suggest that the SEC might make a 180-degree turn on approving a spot Ethereum ETF. In response, Ethereum surged over 15%, and Bitcoin broke the $70,000 mark.
AlexEther surged close to 20% within 24 hours, driven by fresh speculation from analysts. Despite months of prevailing pessimism, it was suggested that spot Ether ETFs might receive approval this week.
CatherineMajor tech giants like OpenAI, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and ByteDance are fiercely competing in the AI race, investing heavily in developing advanced AI models and integrating AI into their products. As AI technology advances, ensuring security measures are in place to prevent exploitation and combat misinformation becomes increasingly crucial for fostering safe and responsible AI innovation.
JoyRussian President Putin accuses the US of attempting to block Russia's payments to China and other countries. Putin claims: "This is truly stupid and a huge mistake by the American political elite because they are causing themselves enormous harm."
MiyukiA 16-year-old genius from China bought Bitcoin for $10 in 2010 and later established a well-known trading platform. However, due to three hacker attacks, a staggering $7.2 billion worth of Bitcoin was lost.
Weiliang