Bitcoin bulls may have to wait until 2024 for next BTC price 'rocket phase'

New data suggests that Bitcoin may remain sideways for another two years before resuming its bull market.

In a tweet on April 6, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical patterns, suggesting that position holders will have to wait until 2024 for the next price "moonshot."

25 months left?

Bitcoin's performance over the past year has taken analysts by surprise, as the much-anticipated "top-off" in the fourth quarter of 2021 fell far short of expectations.

The debate surrounding the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the four-year halving cycle has shifted after BTC/USD fell more than 50% from these modest all-time highs.

As reported by Cointelegraph, the market is used to seeing macro price tops every four years, especially in the year following each Bitcoin block reward halving event.

However, price action is less predictable now, and while the factors governing price action are many and varied, this does not necessarily mean that bulls will get a breakout at a different point in the current cycle.

According to Brandt, Bitcoin’s next price surge may not occur until May 2024 — which would almost coincide with the next block reward halving.

Historically, it’s too early for a top down, but based on historical patterns beyond halving cycles, a 10x price increase is still possible.

“The past two times Bitcoin has rallied 10x or more, it took an average of 33 months to get to the next stage of the rocket,” Brandt explained.

"If history repeats itself (and I don't think it will), the next rocket stage will ignite in May 2024."

step by step

As for why Bitcoin will be suppressed until then, analysts point to macro triggers.

Central bank tightening, if successful, should arguably weigh on risky assets, while prolonged periods of high inflation and low interest rates similarly paint a bleak picture for Bitcoin — at least in the short term.

In the longer term, the status quo may change once the initial shock of these events wears off. Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of bitcoin exchange BitMEX, and Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, are both more confident about bitcoin's prospects over a longer time frame than its outlook for the next few months.

In February of this year, Willy Woo made this prediction for the outlook for 2022: "Bitcoin is a risk-on safe haven. Gold is a safe haven for risk-off. Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safe haven, this year It will be its first real market test."

"In times of war, the first reaction of the market is risk aversion and the second reaction is to go to safe haven."

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