Bitcoin dips to $22.6K, risking further losses if it fails to hold above 200-week MA

The mood across the cryptocurrency ecosystem is noticeably brighter on July 22 after a week of gains helped traders put the events of the past two months behind them and look toward a positive future. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been oscillating around support at $23,000 over the past couple of days and continues to hold slightly above its 200-week moving average (MA), which has been a reliable indicator of bear market bottoms in the past.

As the debate about the market's direction continues to rage, here are the important levels to watch heading into the weekend, according to analysts.

Bitcoin needs weekly close above $22,800

The significance of Bitcoin trading above its 200-week MA was noted by independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart highlighting the major support and resistance zones:

According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin is “facing crucial resistance again” at $23,500, and what happens next will determine if its price heads higher or pulls back to support at $21,500. He explained:

“If that breaks at $23.8K, I'm assuming we'll continue and then $28K is on the tables, but we also have a clear breakout above the 200-Week MA confirmed.”

The importance of BTC holding above the 200-week MA was further addressed by market analyst Rekt Capital, who highlighted the need for Bitcoin to see a weekly close above $22,800:

#BTC is see-sawing around the 200-week MA all week

The most important thing will be the confirmation relative to the 200-week MA in the form of a Weekly Candle Close

The 200-week MA represents the price point of $22800$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 22, 2022

Anticipating a big move

The recent price action is a sign that “a big move for #BTC is going to happen soon,” according to crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user CryptoGodJohn, who provided the following chart outlining two possible paths Bitcoin could take:

CryptoGodJohn said:

“Break above and hold $24,200. I think we squeeze to $27K–$28K fairly quickly. If we start accepting back into the range, I am looking for a flush down to $20K. Pretty easy invalidation on both, stay safe.”

Related: Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions

The possibility of a move in either direction was also noted by the Twitter user Mayne, who posted the following chart addressing the “potential range break out” for Bitcoin.

They further explained: “Upside could be juicy if we can hold above $22.5k/range high. Lose the range high, this was likely a deviation. The move above range high becomes your risk as you target shorts back into the range.”

Keeping it simple

For those who are more inclined to accumulate and hodl as opposed to focusing on the day-to-day price movements of Bitcoin, market analyst Caleb Franzen offered the following insight to when it would be a good time to dollar-cost average:

#Bitcoin analysis with monthly candles & the 12-month Williams%R Oscillator.

When the W%R becomes "oversold" on a 1-year basis, it signals an accumulation zone. When it crosses above the oversold threshold, the bull market stampedes.

We're in the accumulation zone since May'22. pic.twitter.com/kBrk23PA9F

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) July 22, 2022

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.048 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 42%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.