Factors Dominating the Development of Crypto Market Trends

Chairman Mao Zedong has two classic articles that I often like to study. One is "On Contradiction", and the other is "On Protracted War".

"On Contradiction" talks about how we analyze the various contradictions that can affect the development of things in the process of the development of things, how to find the main contradiction that dominates the development of things from many contradictions, how to distinguish the main contradiction from the secondary contradiction, and the main contradiction. and the development and change of secondary contradictions. This is the methodology that guides our analysis of the problem.

"On Protracted War" is a classic deductive article specifically used to analyze the actual situation in "On Contradiction". In this article, the author deduces the development and changes of the contradictions in the entire process of the War of Resistance based on the development and possible changes of the national conditions of China and Japan in the early days of the War of Resistance, and deduces the development stages experienced by the entire War of Resistance. What happens on both sides, and what we should do in each case. This is an article of great guiding significance and reference value for predicting the medium and long-term development of things.

Going back to the specific issues we want to discuss: For us, now that the entire market has entered a bear market, and according to my previous prediction, the market has entered the second stage of the bear market, we can start to make fixed investments, then at this time The main questions we have to pay attention to become two: First, how long is this bear market likely to last? The second is how to use this time to set a fixed investment price and plan that suits us?

To try to analyze these issues, the two articles mentioned above are worthy of our reference and study.

On the one hand, the trend of the current encryption market has been increasingly influenced and dominated by large institutional funds. On the other hand, it still has its own unique development conditions and laws. Therefore, I think there are two main contradictions that dominate the development of the bear market: one is the Federal Reserve The other is the status and laws of the encryption ecology itself.

In layman's terms, the so-called Fed's macro policy includes two points: one is the regulation of interest rates, and the other is the watermarking of money. These two points directly determine whether the entire encryption market has new external funds entering the market, and whether there are new external funds entering the market directly determines whether the market has a direct upward momentum.

We have already talked a lot about the impact of the Fed’s policy on the encryption market, so I won’t repeat it in this article. I will continue to analyze and deduce it in the following chapters.

The so-called problems of the encryption ecology itself mainly have two aspects: one is the negative problems of the encryption ecology itself, and the other is the new opportunities contained in the encryption ecology. In layman's terms, the former refers to how many mines will explode and cause the market to collapse, while the latter refers to what kind of new scenarios and new ecology will be produced in layman's terms.

Here we focus on analyzing the problems of the encryption ecology itself.

First of all, the negative problems of the encryption ecology will trigger a market crash on the one hand, further pulling down the market, and on the other hand, it will seriously hinder the entry of new funds.

The unanchoring of UST this time is a classic case. The collapse of UST directly brought down LUNA and Bitcoin , while the plunge of Bitcoin brought down the entire market. Without the collapse of UST, I am afraid that the market would not have fallen so badly in such a short period of time. The collapse of UST not only affected the encryption ecology, but also attracted the attention of regulators: after the US Treasury Secretary named the risks and problems of UST two days ago, it was recently reported that the US Securities Regulatory Commission is investigating UST.

Obviously, this thunder has not only affected people in the circle, but has also seriously spread to outside the circle and even the traditional financial circle. We can imagine that after such an accident, the traditional big money will obviously be afraid of this circle in the short or medium term.

The new vitality contained in the encryption ecology is the hope and longing for the long-term development of the entire encryption ecology. It is the future that all our investors hope for, and it is also the fundamental motivation and basis for us to stick to this position. It is also the fundamental reason for attracting new funds to enter the market in the future. Once a new ecology breaks out and people see new opportunities, new external funds will continue to enter the market, which will drive the market again and usher in the next bull market.

Well, we have listed the two basic contradictions that will affect the development of the next bear market, so how will these two basic contradictions intertwine and affect the development of the next bear market? This is the focus of our next article.