Google Users Think BTC Is Dead — 5 Things to Know This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week above $20,000 but is set to set a new bearish record as key support levels remain out of reach.

After a quiet weekend that briefly surged near $22,000, BTC/USD is back near Friday's close on the CME futures market.

So the "round trip" allowed traders to keep trading at the close of the last Wall Street session last week, but what happens in the next few days?

The combination of macro threats and ongoing bearish trends makes the current market environment far from ideal for ordinary coin holders. Despite seeing some relief last week, cryptocurrency markets continue to bear the brunt of the retreat that increasingly defines macro sentiment through 2022.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning as the June monthly close draws closer, in what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.

With inflation raging and cryptocurrencies struggling to regain their footing, Cointelegraph looks at five potential market triggers for the week ahead.

Traders Expect BTC Price 'Catalyst' in July

“Apathy” is a good word to describe the general surrender mood among bitcoin traders this week.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that while the weekend left regular holders with no more unwelcome surprises, the fact remains that BTC/USD is far from where anyone would like it to be — even in a bear market .

The inability to touch the key 200-week moving average (WMA) has left little bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the fact that “Extreme Fear” on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in control.

Venturefounder, a contributing analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, concluded in a Twitter update on June 27: “BTC will fall to the bottom of the cycle (between $140,000-$21,000) in the next 6 months, and then in 2023. Maintained at $28,000-40,000 for most of the time, and again around $40,000 by the next halving.”

The Venturefounder paper is indicative of a broader belief that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and any mitigation measures would do just that - distracting attention on the path to lower levels, thereby diverting funds away from new and weak hands in the market suck away.

The first week of July is expected to spark the next big move in cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

“Bitcoin doesn’t have a lot going on overnight, but expect a rather slow week due to the lack of catalysts right now,” confirmed Crypto Tony, a popular trader.

"July will be a more volatile month due to upcoming catalysts."

For Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is when the giants will once again band together to punish holders.

In a blog post in early June, he pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive rate hikes and balance sheet shrinkage as key backdrops to the risk asset nightmare.

“By June 30th (end of Q2), the Fed will implement a 75bp rate hike and start shrinking its balance sheet. July 4th is Monday, a federal and bank holiday. Perfect arrangement," Hayes warned.

As a result, a "crazy downtrend" could follow in a few days.

As Cointelegraph reported, the general consensus for a true price bottom is centered around the $14,000-$16,000 region, but others see $11,000, which represents an 84.5% drop from Bitcoin’s recent all-time high.

How normal is this bear market?

While some have sold their bitcoins in a panic, analysts are trying to show that there's nothing unusual about the size of bitcoin's bear market so far.

These include on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research article “A Bear of Historic Proportions” called for calm on BTC below $20,000.

"Historic bear market lows established when Bitcoin fell -75% to -84% from peak (ATH) and lasted 260 days in 2019-20, 410 days in 2015," it wrote.

"The current decline is -73.3% below the November 2021 ATH, and with a duration between 227 and 435 days, this bear market is now well within historical norms and sizes."

The current environment is not Bitcoin itself, but investors' reaction to price changes.

BTC sales at a loss have surpassed previous records, although losses are still within historical norms.

“The recent price crash into the $20,000 region saw the largest daily USD-denominated realized losses in history,” Glassnode noted.

"Investors lost a total of $4.234 billion in one day, a 22.5% increase from the record of $3.457 billion set in mid-2021."

In Bitcoin terms, this is the third largest loss in Bitcoin's history.

BTC at risk of first monthly close below 200WMA

With 3 days to go until June’s close, things are either worrisome or “interesting” for Bitcoin, depending on your point of view.

With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD remains below the key trendline that supported it during previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA) has never declined in value and is currently located at $22,430.

As Cointelegraph reported, in previous bear markets, Bitcoin has held the 200WMA as support and formed a price bottom below it.

This time, however, the level is turning into resistance as the bulls' attempts to follow history have repeatedly failed. As such, the end of the month could be "interesting," with Stock-to-Flow price model creator PlanB saying it will mark the first-ever monthly close below the 200-WMA.

The accompanying chart, uploaded on June 26, shows Bitcoin’s relationship to the 200WMA and distance to its block halving event, which describe a 4-year cycle that incorporates the previously mentioned bear market paradigm.

Meanwhile, Checkmate, the chief on-chain analyst at Glassnode, pointed out that there are more unusual bearish features in the current Bitcoin price.

He noted that in addition to being below the 200WMA, BTC/USD is also trading below its realized price and is in the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple indicator.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, the Mayer Multiple shows how likely the price is below its 200-day moving average and that buying at a particular level yields asymmetric returns.

“Over the past 4,360 trading days, such an event has only occurred 13 times, or 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate tweeted.

Bitcoin dominance slips from multi-month highs

Just recently, altcoins suffered even more than Bitcoin due to upheavals in several major projects, including Terra and Celsius.

Now, however, the situation is turning — Bitcoin’s dominance has reversed after surging this year, leading some to think that altcoins may be good places to play in the short term.

“Bitcoin dominance is dropping dramatically. The altcoins now have the upper hand,” concluded the popular Twitter account BTCfuel.

After hitting an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin's share of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped to 43.46% at the time of writing - a notable move in less than three weeks. Variety.

For veteran trader Peter Brandt, bitcoin's relative strength against alternatives may be more important than bulls see.

"This chart could be an important 'teller,'" he said of the data on market cap dominance.

"A decisive close back above 50% would be a huge positive."

Meanwhile, others believe that despite the recent reversal, it is not yet time for altcoins to move forward in any meaningful way.

According to Venturefounder, holding BTC is still the best option for investors.

“Normal bear market narrative altcoins have more impact on Bitcoin,” Decentrader added in a separate commentary on the recent dominant move.

“However, over the past two weeks, altcoins have (usually) underperformed. So either: “this time is different”, or “this won’t last”. Dominance remains between 40-48%.”

Bitcoin goes mainstream again — and for the wrong reasons

Bitcoin is more popular among mainstream internet users than at any point in over a year — but is it cause for celebration?

Data from Google Trends confirms that more people are Googling "bitcoin" this month than at any time since May 2021.

However, then as now, BTC price action was targeting long-term lows rather than highs, suggesting a bearish event that sparked mainstream interest.

In contrast, November's all-time high appears to be just a blip on the radar when it comes to search interest.

As a result, there has been a surge in activity for phrases such as "Bitcoin is dead," which social media users pointed out could be a sign that the market is in a "capitulation" phase.