Bitcoin (BTC) is enjoying what some are calling a "bear market rally" and has gained 20% in July, but price action is still confusing analysts.
As the July monthly close approaches, the Puell Multiple has left its bottom zone, leading to hopes that the worst of the losses may be in the past.
The Puell Multiple one of the best-known on-chain Bitcoin metrics. It measures the value of mined bitcoins on a given day compared to the value of those mined in the past 365 days.
The resulting multiple is used to determine whether a day's mined coins is particularly high or low relative to the year's average. From that, miner profitability can be inferred, along with more general conclusions about how overbought or oversold the market is.
After hitting levels which traditionally accompany macro price bottoms, the Puell Multiple is now aiming higher — something traditionally seen at the start of macro price uptrends.
"Based on historical data, the breakout from this zone was accompanied by gaining bullish momentum in the price chart," Grizzly, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of the firm's "Quicktake" market updates on July 25.
The Multiple is not the only signal flashing green in current conditions. As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation trends among hodlers are also suggesting that the macro bottom is already in.
After its surprise relief bounce in the second half of this month, Bitcoin is now near its highest levels in six weeks and far from a new macro low.
Related: Bitcoin futures data shows 'improving' mood' despite -31% GBTC premium
As sentiment exits the "fear" zone, market watchers are pointing to unique phenomena which continue to make the 2022 bear market extremely difficult to predict with any certainty.
In another of its recent "Quicktake" research pieces, CryptoQuant noted that even price trendlines are not acting as normal this time around.
In particular, BTC/USD has crisscrossed its realized price level several times in recent weeks, something which did not occur in prior bear markets.
Realized price is the average at which the BTC supply last moved, and currently sits just below $22,000.
"The Realized Price has signaled the market bottoms in previous cycles," CryptoQuant explained.
"More importantly, the bitcoin price did not cross the Realized Price threshold during the last two periods (134 days in 2018 and 7 days in 2020). Yet, since June 13, it crossed back and forth this level three times, which shows the uniqueness of this cycle due to unprecedented macroeconomic conditions."
Those conditions, as Cointelegraph reported, have come in the form of forty-year highs in inflation in the United States, rampant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and most recently signals that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
In addition to realized price, meanwhile, Bitcoin has formed an unusual relationship to its 200-week moving average (MA) this bear market.
While normally retaining it as support with brief dips below, BTC/USD managed to flip the 200-week MA to resistance for the first time in 2022. It currently sits at around $22,800, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said in an interview with Reuters yesterday (6th) that the official approval of an Ethereum spot ETF depends on how quickly issuers respond to SEC comments. This implies that the SEC will not delay the approval process for the S-1 filing as some fear.
MiyukiTaiwan has been criticized as a "fraud kingdom" due to rampant fraud. Some believe that Taiwan's criminal penalties for fraud are too lenient, making the cost of crime too low for fraudsters. This article compares the severity of fraud penalties in Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.
WeiliangBitMEX founder Arthur Hayes wrote today that the crypto bull market is reawakening and is about to expose the lies of extravagant central bank governors. He advises going long on Bitcoin, followed by altcoins.
Miyuki'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin will hit $350K by late August 2024, driven by his distrust of US leadership. Will this forecast crash and burn like some of his previous speculations?
KikyoStand With Crypto, an advocacy group launched by Coinbase, has surpassed 1 million members, reflecting the cryptocurrency industry's growing political influence. With significant financial backing and a focus on advocating for favorable regulatory policies, Stand With Crypto is poised to shape the political landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies in the United States.
AnaisDubbing himself as a "crypto president" and criticising Democratic efforts to regulate the industry, Donald Trump vowed to reverse the anti-crypto stance of President Joe Biden and SEC Chair Gary Gensler upon re-election. But is it all just talk?
CatherineWithin 24 hours, multiple OKX users reported on social media that their assets were stolen by hackers. The company has stated it is conducting a thorough investigation and will take responsibility if the issue is found to be a platform vulnerability.
AlexCardano's nearing its crucial Voltaire phase, emphasising self-governance and decentralisation through the Chang hard fork. Despite ADA's lackluster price performance in 2024, ongoing development efforts and a focus on real-world solutions suggest a promising future for the project.
WeatherlyThe renowned financial website Forbes recently published an article titled "‘A Very Big Opportunity’—Cryptocurrencies Suddenly Prepared for a Huge Chinese 'Earthquake' Following Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple Price Surge." Cryptocurrency investor Brock Pierce stated that it is only a matter of time before China reopens its digital door to cryptocurrencies after the crackdown in 2021 that led to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices.
MiyukiWhich publicly listed companies hold the largest Bitcoin reserves in the world?
Weiliang