IMF recession warning sees Bitcoin dip under $21K amid fresh $1M BTC price forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $21,000 for the first time in eight days on July 26 as Wall Street prepared for a decision on United States' anti-inflation policy.

Fed jitters test market resolve

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ending a period of sideways action on the Wall Street open, hitting lows of $20,788 on Bitstamp.

Against its highs of $24,280 on July 20, the pair was now down over 14% as nerves across risk assets heightened in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates due July 27.

The higher the base rate hike by the Fed, the more problematic the outlook for crypto investors as more tightening would mean more conservative conditions prevailing across the economy. 

"BTC has lost the Higher Low, which represented a lower timeframe technical uptrend," he told Twitter followers alongside an illustrative chart.

Elsewhere on macro, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its July 2022 World Economic Outlook, forecasting a significant slowdown in global growth, which should average 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023.

"The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall," it read.

"For example, according to the latest forecasts, the United States will have real GDP growth of only 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis, which will make it increasingly challenging to avoid a recession."

Eyeing daily timeframes, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that with the Fed event still to come, Bitcoin had already lost its uptrend.

"BTC has lost the Higher Low, which represented a lower timeframe technical uptrend," he told Twitter followers on the day.

"The trend has shifted."

A further post described the current pullback as the logical sequel to Bitcoin giving up its 200-week moving average level as support after briefly regaining it last week.

This #BTC pullback is the technical aftermath of rejecting from the 200-week MA after a Weekly Close below it$BTC#Crypto#Bitcoinpic.twitter.com/SRl2Qlcdp3

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 26, 2022

"Patience is a virtue," fellow trader and analyst Anbessa continued.

"Wait for a reversal pattern to re-enter. No setup for an entry at $21,6k, so we stay patient."

Anbessa additionally said that that there was "no need to FOMO" into the markets at current prices.

Still in line for $1 million?

Others had reason to be cautiously bullish on Bitcoin, with conviction increasing in line with timeframes under observation.

Related: 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential 'macro bottom'

"Volatile week playing out as expected," fellow Twitter account IncomeSharks continued. In a more optimistic forecast, IncomeSharks said that it would eye a $30,000 price tag "in a few months."

"Now is not the time to get bearish and sell, that was last week," it added.

PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price models, meanwhile maintained that BTC/USD could still trade as high as $1 million by 2027.

At the same time, he predicted on the day, U.S. equities would reach new heights never seen before.

Some of you are afraid of macro and the link between bitcoin and stock markets etc.
IMO the next ~5 years S&P500 will be in the $5K-$6K range and bitcoin in the $100K-$1M range. Short term is noise, long term is signal. pic.twitter.com/rhz4cigHRc

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 26, 2022

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