Institutions Sold 230,000 Bitcoins in Past Two Months: Who's Selling? what reason?

Author|Arcane Research

Compile|Wu Zhuocheng Wu said blockchain

Original link:

https://arcane.no/research/236-237-btc-sold-by-known-institutions-in-the-last-two-months

236,237, which is the known large institutional BTC sell-off since May 10. Most sell-offs are forced, a few are not, and we have a brief after-the-fact analysis of selling pressure and knock-on effects over the past two months.

The 236,237 BTC figure comes from the massive institutional liquidation and other massive selling seen during the past two months of market stress. This figure does not take into account other unforced selling and hedging activity, which often occurs in cryptocurrency bear markets.

It all started withDo Kwonand LFG

Within 5 days after LFG reached its initial USD 3 billion BTC reserve target, the exchange rate of UST against the US dollar fell into chaos. In order to save UST from unanchoring, LFG used 80,000 BTC reserves.

The collapse of Luna and UST led to more selling spreading in the coming months.

Miners sell off for the first time inMay

The market situation deteriorated, and listed miners were forced to sell their BTC in May.

In May, listed BTC miners sold a total of 4,456 BTC.

tesla

During that time, Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin. We estimate Tesla’s selloff at 29,060 BTC at an average price of $32,209.

This estimate is based on previous VWAP estimates from their initial purchase of BTC (average price of $34,841) and sale of 10% of BTC in Q1 2021 to "test liquidity".

Assuming that 10% of the BTC sold in the first quarter was at a price of $50,000, Tesla's new BTC cost price is about $33,325, which means that Tesla sold at a small loss.

CPIsurprise

Entering June 10, the US CPI surprised everyone. Related factors sent prices down, bankrupting several whales already under stress following Luna's crash.

On June 12th, Celsius stopped withdrawals and rumors of a 3AC crash spread. Leaked court documents show that 3AC owes lenders 18,193 BTC and GBTC equivalent to 22,054 pounds.

Following bankruptcy, 3AC's creditors hedged and de-risked the exposure while liquidating 3AC in an attempt to repair the holes in the balance sheet, triggering a reasonable fire sale.

Purposeliquidation

In the chain reaction of Luna, 3AC, and Celsius, the Canadian Purpose ETF saw a large-scale redemption of 24,510 BTC, creating further selling pressure in the market.

Miner sell-off intensifies inJune

The market has turned darker, with a small sell-off by BTC miners in May becoming more intense in June. In June, listed BTC miners sold 14,600 BTC.

CelsiusBankruptcy Reorganization

Celsius prepared for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and repaid DeFi loans, releasing 21,962 WBTC in early July.

In addition to WBTC, Celsius also allocated a large amount of stETH, which was rumored to have been acquired by Alameda in June this year at a 15% discount.

Alameda may have hedged their stETH exposure, causing a surge in ETH selling while putting temporary brutal downward pressure on ETH, affecting the broader cryptocurrency market.

The problem of macro indicators on the chain

In late April, I attempted to challenge the views of some macro on-chain metrics. Much of the selling pressure since May has come from decentralized exchanges and the sources I mentioned in my research on “BTC’s productization could have an impact on the market.”

Where are we now?

The past two months have been a period of apparent institutional capitulation. Most of the above-mentioned 236,237 BTC sales were forced sales, and it is likely that the situation was worse than estimated in this research report.

Chapter 11, 3AC court filings, the normalization of stETH/ETH prices, and the relief rally seen over the past few weeks tell me that the knock-on effects are being contained and the previous era of uncertainty is behind us.

Liquidation temporarily closed

I tend to think that the period of uncertainty with forced selling and serial liquidations is over for now and the market will normalize.

We may continue to dip and sell in a volatile environment for some time to come, with macro and correlations likely to reemerge as key forces in the market.