Market analysis: BTC, ETH, ADA, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOT, DOGE, LUNA, UNI

September remains a historically weak period for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin ended the month down about 7 percent. However, October may cheer the bulls, as Bitcoin has risen in October in six of the past eight years, with only Octobers falling in 2014 and 2018.

The bulls were aggressive earlier this month, while the bears were eager to close their positions. Short positions worth more than $270 million were liquidated within minutes, the data showed. Some altcoins also shared Bitcoin’s enthusiasm, moving sharply higher on Oct. 1.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance Source: Coin360

Over the past two months, Bitcoin has followed PlanB’s S2F model predictions. If PlanB is lucky enough to be right for the third time, Bitcoin could rise to $63,000, which is what the model predicted for October.

Despite a strong start to the month, will the bulls be able to sustain the momentum and push the cryptocurrency's price even higher, or will higher levels attract selling from the bears?

Let’s take a look at the chart of the top ten cryptocurrencies.

BTC/USDT

Bears have repeatedly failed to sink Bitcoin below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) ($41,470) over the past few days, which may have attracted buying from aggressive bulls and short-covering from short-term traders.

BTC/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

The bullish momentum picked up on Oct. 1 after the bulls pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($44,485). Continued buying pushed the price above the 50-SMA ($46604).

If the price sustains above the 50-SMA, the bulls will attempt to push BTC/USDT above the right shoulder to $48,843.20. This could open the doors for an upside move towards strong resistance at $52,920.

If BTC/USDT pulls back from current levels or overhead resistance, but does not break below the 20-EMA, it will indicate that market sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bears will have to pull the price back below the 20-EMA to gain the upper hand.

ETH/USDT

On September 29, the ETH long shadow showed that bears were selling at higher levels, but in a positive sign, the bulls did not allow the price to break below the 100-SMA ($2,794). This shows that bulls continue to accumulate at lower levels.

ETH/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

Aggressive buying over the past two days has pushed the price above the 50-SMA ($3290). The range between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line is key for the bears to defend as if the bulls push the price above this area, ETH/USDT could rise to $3676.28.

The 20-EMA has flattened out and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen into positive territory, suggesting that the bulls are pulling back. This view will be negated if the price pulls back from current levels and breaks below the 100-SMA.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) rebounded from the $2.02 level on Sept. 29, showing that the bulls are trying to hold onto the range between the psychological level of $2 and $1.94. The rebound may encounter strong resistance at the 20-EMA ($2.26).

ADA/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

If the price pulls back from the 20-EMA, it will indicate that market sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then try again to sink the price below the 100-SMA ($1.89).

Conversely, if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-EMA, it will indicate that demand outstrips supply. ADA/USDT could then rise towards the 50-SMA ($2.45), a level that could once again act as a strong resistance. A breakout and close above this resistance could lead to an uptick in bullish momentum.

BNB/USDT

BNB’s sharp rally over the past two days suggests short covering and aggressive long buying. Buyers have cleared the 20-EMA ($384) barrier and may now challenge the overhead resistance at $433.

BNB/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

If the price pulls back from $433 but bounces off the 20-EMA, it will indicate that sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips.

A break and close above $433 could pave the way for a potential rally to $518.90. The 20-EMA has started to turn back up and the RSI has jumped into positive territory, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a comeback.

Conversely, if the price pulls back from current levels and breaks below the 20-EMA, BNB/USDT could drop to $340.

XRP/USDT

On Oct. 1, XRP traded in a tight range between the 20-EMA ($0.99) and the 100-SMA ($0.89) to resolve the upside. The 20-EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls have regained lost ground.

XRP/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

However, today's long shadows suggest that the bears have not given up and are trying to defend the 50-SMA ($1.11). If the price turns down from the current levels, the bears will try to pull the price back to the 100-SMA.

On the other hand, if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 50-SMA, it will indicate that the correction may be over. XRP/USDT could then start moving towards the resistance at $1.41.

SOL/USDT

Although the bears managed to hold the 20-EMA ($142) for the past few days, they were unable to pull Solana (SOL) below the support zone between the 50-SMA ($122) and $116. This suggests that the sell-off dried up at lower levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

The bulls pushed the price above the 20-EMA on Oct. 1, suggesting that the corrective phase may be over. SOL/USDT could now rise to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $166 and above it to the 61.8% retracement at $177.80.

If the price pulls back from either resistance level but bounces off the 20-EMA, it will indicate that market sentiment has turned positive and traders see the dip as a buying opportunity. The bears must sink the price below $116 to gain the upper hand.

DOT/USDT

The bulls have pushed DOT above the 20-EMA ($30.11) and the downtrend line on Oct. 1, the first sign that the selling pressure may be weakening.

DOT/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

The 20-EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls have a slight advantage. If the buyers sustain the price above the downtrend line, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to $33.60.

A breakout and close above this resistance could attract heavy buying and DOT/USDT could rise to $38.77. Contrary to this assumption, DOT/USDT could enter a downtrend if the price turns down from current levels or overhead resistance and breaks below the neckline.

DOGE/USDT

On Oct. 1, DOGE traded in a tight range between $0.19 and $0.21 to resolve the upside, suggesting that the sell-off had been priced in by the bulls. The next step for the bulls will be to attempt to push the price above the 20-EMA ($0.22), which could act as a stiff resistance.

DOGE/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

If the price pulls back from the 20-EMA but does not break below $0.21, it will signal traders to buy on dips. This will increase the probability of a breakout of the 20-EMA. If this happens, DOGE/USDT could rise to the downtrend line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-EMA and breaks below $0.21, it will indicate that demand is drying up at higher levels. The bearish momentum is likely to pick up as the price closes below $0.19.

LUNA/USDT

Terra Protocol’s LUNA token fell below the 20-EMA ($35.02) on Sept. 28, but the bears failed to capitalize on the drop. The bulls bought at lower levels and pushed the price back above the 20-EMA on September 30.

LUNA/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

LUNA/USDT is currently facing strong resistance on the downside, but the long tail of the day shows that bulls are accumulating on dips. This increases the probability of a breakout of the downtrend line.

If the price closes above the downtrend line, it will indicate that the correction may be over. Then LUNA/USDT may retest the all-time high of $45.01. This bullish view will be invalidated if the price turns down from current levels and falls below the 50-SMA ($32).

UNI/USDT

Over the past few days, the bulls have repeatedly failed to sustain the price of UNI above the downtrend line of the descending channel, but the positive sign is that they have not given up much ground.

UNI/USDT daily chart source: TradingView

Strong buying on Oct. 1 pushed the price above the channel and into overhead resistance at the 50-SMA ($25.72). This is an important level for the bears to defend, as UNI/USDT could add momentum to the upside if this resistance is breached.

UNI/USDT could then rise to $27.62 and then to the key resistance at $31.41. Conversely, if the price turns down from the 50-SMA, the bears will make another attempt to sink UNI/USDT below $22.

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