Will Evergrande's risk lead to a "Chinese Lehman moment"?

China Evergrande Group is currently facing the risk of default, and the market is full of controversial "Lehman moment of China" arguments, which believe that the global capital market will face crisis, and even wrote an article saying that Evergrande's ticking time bomb will lead to a global stock market disaster.

Bloomberg also stated on September 20 that concerns that the Evergrande crisis may spread and affect global markets have triggered widespread selling, and cryptocurrency prices have also experienced a sharp drop.

Huobi Research Institute believes that the sharp drop in Evergrande’s stock price has dragged down Hong Kong stocks, which in turn affected European and U.S. stock markets, and risk sentiment is strong. However, compared with the subprime mortgage crisis that year, the risks faced by Evergrande will not reach the impact of that year.

The reason is that the main reason for the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis was that the product embedding in the financial market was too complicated, involving banks, funds, insurance and many other financial fields. sexual risk.

Although Evergrande's debt risk also has certain influence, because its financial product structure has not reached the nesting level designed by the subprime mortgage crisis, the impact range of this risk can be isolated. Therefore, the risk of a so-called "Chinese version of Lehman moment" is very difficult.

Huobi Research Institute reminds that there are great risks in embedding financial products, but some phenomena in the DeFi market are also worth noting. The nested design of the current DeFi market is more complicated than the design of financial products during the subprime mortgage crisis. Every time there is a market plunge, the phenomenon of serial stampede also occurs, but the DeFi market can recover quickly after experiencing similar situations, and the development performance is more vigorous.

why? Maybe it's worth exploring why.

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