A brief talk about NOT two or three things - a bottom-up experiment of TON ecosystem?

Author: Eric SJ Source: X, @sjbtc9

1. Let's define NOT first. The Meme attribute is definitely greater than the game attribute. There is not even any shadow of the game. Strictly speaking, it can be defined as the track of [mobile mining]. The user volume of this track is really huge. The famous project that has not been launched in this track is #PINetwork. The most famous project in the secondary market is #CORE.

2. It is understandable that NOT is listed on the exchange, but this time it is the new coin mining of OKX, which is also listed on Binance at the same time, which is a bit surprising. I remember that the last one like this seemed to be ACE

Because the former may want user traffic. After all, it is said that the number of users backed by TG is also huge, and it is normal for the exchange to eat this traffic. This is a passive perspective, but there is initiative in the new coin mining

3. Based on the second point, I have said before that the seal of TON may be loosened. Previously, TON may not have been launched due to regulatory issues. It is also the only one in the top 20 that has not been launched (background supplement: TON became the target of litigation by the SEC in 2020). But since last year, we can see that TON is very active in the industry. It is speculated that it has broken away from the previous regulatory shadow. Whether there are any specific progress in SEC-related events, I have not found any public information.

4. NOT and its logo are TON in reverse. Therefore, although I said in the first point that it can be defined as the [mobile mining] track, it still has the strongest Meme attribute. After all, if there is a serious business project, it will not have such a Meme-like tone.

5. NOT is fully circulated when it goes online, of which nearly 80% belongs to the community. This selling pressure is unimaginable. In addition, only 3% of the initial shares used for new coin mining are used. Compared with the full circulation, this is far lower than the proportion of any previous period.

We calculate the market value by the circulation. In the previous #Binance Launchpooll, the circulation was basically about 10%, so the proportion of new coin mining in it can have a certain influence

In this case, the proportion of new coin mining has almost no influence.

6. In addition to the recent new coin launches, I have listed several in the above figure. Except for ETHFI and ENA, two tokens with relatively strong Defi attributes and business models, the performance of the other two tokens of SAGA and OMNI infrastructure business is very general.

This has a lot to do with market liquidity/sentiment. I also listed the representative MEMEs launched on #Binance: BOME, which also performed poorly. As expected, the leading Meme of TON series was launched this time.

7. So for us, where is the market opportunity to gamble?

This opportunity undoubtedly refers to the re-gambling of new coins on #Binance

Let’s talk about the secondary market first: NOT Taking all the above factors into consideration, it is undoubtedly too risky to take it up when it is initially launched. It is very cost-effective to ambush TON in the short term, because after this wave, it is indeed very likely to be listed on Binance

So in the primary market, there is certainly no problem in targeting the TON ecosystem, but I have seen many projects that are doing similar models to NOT. Such projects are unlikely to continue to be listed on Binance. Finding projects in different sectors to interact with can also gain some certainty

8. Why do I say that NOT is also bottom-up?

Because it is based on a large number of gathering communities, this part of the community is of very low quality, and even has a lower threshold than the fair MINT of Inscription

This way of logging into the secondary market, there is no community consensus on the token at all, and locking in profits may be the mainstream idea of ​​the so-called community

The launch of NOT is indeed very unexpected. It has been less than two quarters since the project was launched and logged into the secondary market, and the majority of the share has been given to the community

Without a market clean-up, it is hard to imagine where the market will have so much liquidity to squander in the short term. Bottom-up construction cannot be separated from this step