A BTC OG's Confession: How to Cope with the Pressure and Panic of a Market Crash

Note: Bitcoin plummeted again on February 6th, briefly falling to $60,000. Compared to the high of $126,000 in October 2025, the drop exceeds 50%. The market is feeling the pain intensely. Let's hear the experiences, lessons, and consolation from Raoul Pal, a BTC OG and founder of RealVision who has gone through multiple cycles. Compiled by Jinse Finance.

It feels cruel outside, hopeless. It's all over. You missed it. You messed up again.

Everyone is angry and confused. Those who even foresaw it feel a little smug, but many can also see how much damage this price movement has caused. It feels like the worst of times.

I've been in the market for 38 years (today's sell-off plus last night's food poisoning is a decent birthday present!), and I've seen all kinds of crashes and panics. They all feel the same. Absolutely fucked up. I started getting into cryptocurrencies in 2013. That's when I first bought BTC at $200. It went up for a while, then dropped 75%... and that was during a bull market that eventually rose more than tenfold. I didn't sell because it was a long-term investment, and I knew the risks. Then, in the 2014 bear market, it dropped another 87%. In the subsequent bull market, through 2017, I experienced three 35% to 45% pullbacks... brutal. Finally, because of the BTC fork war, I sold everything at $2000 (the previous high from 2013). From my initial entry point, I made 10 times my initial investment. Then, at the end of that year, it rose another 10 times (!!) before starting another huge and ugly bear market. I completely avoided that bear market, which felt great. During the COVID crash, I re-bought in at $6,500 (3.5 times higher than when I sold). This was definitely a costly "doing the right thing" mistake. From April to July 2021, BTC fell 50% like it is now. The sentiment on Twitter was terrible. Really terrible. But the market wasn't actually as oversold then as it is today… By November 2021, the market was back to all-time highs. SOL rose 13 times from its low. ETH doubled. BTC hit a new high, up 150%. I've been through all of this. Every agonizing moment in a long bull market. I first bought in at $200. Now it's $65,000. I even missed out on 3.5x in the middle because I was trying to time the market. The first key lesson for me is: in long-term rising assets, it's best to do nothing. HODL (Hold On to Lose) is a meme, but it's very valid. It's far more powerful than the 4-year cycle meme. The second lesson is: actively add to your position during sell-offs. Even if your timing is off, gradually adding to your position during a downtrend will greatly compound your returns in the long run, even better than dollar-cost averaging (DCA). I ​​don't always have cash to buy heavily during sell-offs, but I always buy something because it trains your mind. It always feels like you've missed an opportunity, it'll never come back, and everything will collapse forever. That's not the case. Ask yourself two questions: Will tomorrow be more digital than today? Will fiat currency be less valuable than today? If the answer is yes, then proceed. Buy on dips (BTFD) and let time beat market timing, because it always does. Adding to your position during major sell-offs lowers your maximum cost basis. This makes a huge difference. Stress, fear, and self-doubt are all "taxes" you must pay on this journey. Position size should match your own risk tolerance. Don't worry, everyone feels their position is too large when prices fall and too small when prices rise. You just need to manage these emotions and find your own optimal balance. Another key thing is: don't rent other people's beliefs. DYOR (Do Your Own Research) is a very important meme. Without it, you won't survive these phases. Earn your own beliefs. Renting other people's beliefs is like using leverage; it will blow you up sooner or later. Remember—when you're busy blaming others, you're actually blaming yourself. Yes, it feels dark outside right now. But the sun will soon rise again, and this will just be another scar on the journey (as long as you don't use leverage! Leverage leads to permanent capital loss because you're gambling with your principal). Never lose your principal. When will all this be over? I don't know, but I think it's more like April to November 2021—a panic within a bull market. I think it will end soon. If I'm wrong, I won't change my approach. I'll just keep adding to my position when I have cash. But for you, it might be different. Try to build a "least regret" portfolio. Can you afford another 50% drop from here? If not, reduce your position, even if it feels stupid. The right mindset is crucial for survival. My mindset is "how can I buy more?", yours might be the opposite. There will always be market makers who time the market perfectly or short it. There always will be. But honestly, you just need to tell yourself: this is always to be expected. That way, when it happens, you won't be so anxious because you already knew it would come! It's just part of the story, not the whole story. What am I doing now? Well, I'm starting to buy some more digital art (which also adds to my ETH position), and I'll continue to increase my crypto asset allocation over the next week, just like I do every time this kind of opportunity arises. I bought into the COVID crash, the 2021 sell-off, the 2022 sell-off, the 2023 sell-off, the 2024 sell-off, and the 2025 sell-off! I'll do it again this time. Every time, my profit and loss (P&L) hits a new high afterward. It works like magic. Again… Buy the dip (BTFD)! Good luck. It's never easy. Volatility is the price we pay for assets that can generate this kind of return over the long term. Embrace it.